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Read Article Astros vs. Mets prediction: Mets favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [8/30/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Houston Astros vs New York Mets predictions for MLB Sunday.
MLB action continues on Sunday at 3:10 PM ET as the Houston Astros lock horns with the New York Mets at Citi Field.
The Mets will send Zac Thornton (3-4, 2.88 ERA) to the mound, while the Astros are going with Ethan Pecko (0-0, 7.88 ERA).
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Mets a slight edge with a 54.3% win probability over the Astros.
This article offers a complete Astros vs. Mets prediction, including best bets and picks.
Astros vs. Mets prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's MLB game between the Astros and Mets, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Mets a 54.3% chance of beating the Astros.
According to our model, the Astros (+1.5) have a 61.5% chance of covering the run line, while the 9.5-run over/under has a 50.8% chance of staying under.
Astros vs. Mets odds [8/30/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Astros +1.5 (-178) / Mets -1.5 (+170)
- Moneyline: Astros +115, Mets -117
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Astros vs. Mets picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Mets -1.5 @ +170 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Mets @ -117 via Novig
- Total: Over 9.5 @ +122 via Polymarket
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 9.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Astros vs. Mets game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB game between the Mets and Astros at Citi Field is scheduled to commence at 3:10 PM ET.
- Who: Houston Astros vs. New York Mets
- Date: Sunday, August 30, 2026
- Time: 3:10 PM ET/12:10PM PT
- Venue: Citi Field
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 54.3% win probability, will likely beat the Astros in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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