Sep 11, 2026
Phillies vs. Braves prediction: Why Atlanta is favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [9/11/2026]
Read Article Astros vs. Rays prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [9/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Dimers' simulation model projects a 59.2% win probability for the Rays at Tropicana Field.
MLB action continues on Friday at 7:10 PM ET as the Houston Astros lock horns with the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field.
The Rays will send Drew Rasmussen (14-5, 2.88 ERA) to the mound, while the Astros will counter with Miguel Ullola (0-0, 3.86 ERA).
Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Rays as the most likely winner in this Astros vs. Rays prediction.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
For more, dive into Drew Rasmussen's pitching projections.
Astros vs. Rays prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Friday's MLB game between the Astros and Rays, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Rays a 59.2% chance of beating the Astros. According to our model, the Astros (+1.5) have a 58.4% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 55.2% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Astros +1.5 (-138) / Rays -1.5 (+135)
- Moneyline: Astros +156, Rays -160
- Total: Over/Under 7.5 (-108/+108)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Astros +1.5 @ 58¢ via Polymarket
- Moneyline: Astros @ 39¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 7.5 @ 52¢ via Polymarket
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Friday's MLB game between the Rays and Astros at Tropicana Field is scheduled to commence at 7:10 PM ET.
- Who: Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- Date: Friday, September 11, 2026
- Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10PM PT
- Venue: Tropicana Field
Conclusion
We predict the Rays, with a 59.2% win probability, will likely beat the Astros in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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