Astros vs. Rays prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [9/11/2026]

The Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros will lock horns in MLB action at Tropicana Field on Friday, starting at 7:10 PM ET.

The Rays will have Drew Rasmussen (14-5, 2.88 ERA) as their starting pitcher, while the Astros have opted for Miguel Ullola (0-0, 3.86 ERA).

Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Rays as the most likely winner in this Astros vs. Rays prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.

For more, dive into Drew Rasmussen's pitching projections.

Astros vs. Rays prediction and odds

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Friday's MLB matchup between the Astros and Rays, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Rays a 57.2% chance of beating the Astros. According to our model, the Astros (+1.5) have a 59.6% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 56.0% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Astros +1.5 (-137) / Rays -1.5 (+130)
• Moneyline: Astros +175, Rays -170
• Total: Over/Under 7.5 (+100/+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Astros +1.5 @ -137 via BetRivers
• Moneyline: Astros @ +175 via Caesars
• Total: Over 7.5 @ 50¢ via Novig

According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Astros to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first pitch details

Friday's MLB action between the Rays and Astros at Tropicana Field is scheduled to commence at 7:10 PM ET.

• Who: Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays
• Date: Friday, September 11, 2026
• Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10PM PT
• Venue: Tropicana Field

Conclusion

We predict the Rays, with a 57.2% win probability, will likely beat the Astros in Friday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.