Is the public overrating the Red Sox after 15-game win streak?

The Boston Red Sox just matched a franchise record with 15 straight wins, a run that is baseball's longest since the St. Louis Cardinals had a 17-game streak in September 2021, and one that saw Boston move from likely trade deadline seller to genuine contender in the AL East and Wild Card race.

But a hot streak brings plenty of betting attention to the sportsbooks and public trading volume to prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, and Dimers' model still has Boston as a heavy longshot to win the division, pointing to a potentially overvalued team in the MLB postseason race.

Dimers' MLB predictions come from our models that simulate every in-season game as well as the rest-of-season schedule 1000s of times to predict outcomes on the game and futures market level, resulting in these predictions for the AL East below.

AL East price comparison

Boston is trading at roughly double Dimers' projection on every platform; Polymarket, Kalshi, and the sportsbook implied number all cluster right around 10%, while Dimers puts the Red Sox at 4.8%.

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Why the public may be overrating the Red Sox right now

The streak itself is the obvious explanation. Boston went from trailing by 15½ games in the East to a team that improved their record from 32-46 to 52-48 and is now squarely in the Wild Card picture.

While a 15-game win streak is an impressive number, there are other concerning numbers for a long-term run.

Boston's offense was scuffling for most of the year, averaging just under 4 runs per game before the streak, the second fewest in baseball, and the surge came without several key contributors like Garrett Crochet in the rotation and hitters like Roman Anthony and Trevor Story.

While they won two series against division leaders (Rays, White Sox), they also won three series over first-place or 4th-place teams (Mets, Angels, Orioles), and spanned over the All-Star Break, meaning the favorable schedule could have played a notable role in their run.

There's more to the game than the long ball, but Boston ranks dead last in Major League Baseball in home runs this year with 66, a very different offensive output than other teams with postseason aspirations.

Dimers' models are discounting the streak's predictive value far more than the crowd is, and the seven-game deficit to Tampa Bay is still a real hurdle over the remaining schedule.

If you are interested in backing Boston, Polymarket is the platform to use, as they currently offer the best price as of publishing. Trading $10 on Boston would return over $100 total. Sign up on Polymarket with promo code DIMERS and qualify for a $20 Polymarket bonus with your first trade of $10 or more.

Where the value is in the AL East

If Dimers is right that Boston's division odds sit closer to 4.8% than 10%, the "No" side on Red Sox-to-win-AL-East seems like the play on Polymarket, Kalshi, and other prediction market sites.

However, that comes with a steep price of around 90%, meaning there's little return on investment. Instead, those looking to invest should look at one of the other teams.

Tampa Bay is still overpriced on Kalshi and Polymarket relative to Dimers' predictions, but the 44% on Polymarket is more palatable than the 50% on  Kalshi.

New York on the other hand, is favored by the Dimers model at nearly 59%, with a 43% chance on Polymarket, the biggest discrepancy between Dimers and any platform.

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