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Read Article Royals vs. Mets prediction: Mets favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [7/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets predictions for MLB Thursday.
The New York Mets and Kansas City Royals will meet in MLB action at Citi Field on Thursday, starting at 1:10 PM ET.
The Mets will have Sean Manaea (1-4, 4.76 ERA) as their starting pitcher, while the Royals have opted for Michael Wacha (5-6, 3.45 ERA).
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model predicts the Mets as the most likely winner of the Royals vs. Mets game.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Royals vs. Mets prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's MLB matchup between the Royals and Mets, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Mets a 58.2% chance of defeating the Royals.
According to our model, the Royals (+1.5) have a 58.7% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 9.5 runs has a 51.7% chance of staying under,.
Royals vs. Mets odds [7/9/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Royals | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-163) | -1.5 (+150) |
| Moneyline | +124 | -127 |
| Total | o9.5 (+113) | u9.5 (-117) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Royals vs. Mets picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets -1.5 | polymarket+150 |
| Moneyline | Mets | polymarket-127 |
| Total | Over 9.5 | polymarket+113 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mets to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Royals vs. Mets game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB matchup between the Mets and Royals at Citi Field is scheduled to commence at 1:10 PM ET.
- Who: Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets
- Date: Thursday, July 9, 2026
- Time: 1:10 PM ET/10:10AM PT
- Venue: Citi Field
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 58.2% win probability, will likely beat the Royals in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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