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Read Article Brewers vs. Padres prediction: Milwaukee favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [8/10/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres predictions for MLB Monday.
MLB action continues on Monday at 9:40 PM ET as the Milwaukee Brewers lock horns with the San Diego Padres at Petco Park.
The Padres will have Casey Mize (4-7, 3.40 ERA) as their starting pitcher, while the Brewers are going with Logan Henderson (6-1, 2.70 ERA).
Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Brewers a slight edge with a 50.3% win probability over the Padres.
This article offers a closer look at Monday's Brewers vs. Padres matchup, including best bets and picks.
Brewers vs. Padres prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's MLB game between the Brewers and Padres, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Brewers a 50.3% chance of defeating the Padres.
According to our model, the Padres (+1.5) have a 63.4% chance of covering the run line, while the 7.5-run over/under has a 50.5% chance of going over,.
Brewers vs. Padres odds [8/10/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Brewers -1.5 (+156) / Padres +1.5 (-156)
- Moneyline: Brewers -113, Padres +113
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Brewers vs. Padres picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Padres +1.5 @ -156 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Padres @ +113 via DraftKings
- Total: Over 7.5 @ +122 via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Brewers vs. Padres game-day updates and essential details
Monday's MLB action between the Padres and Brewers at Petco Park is scheduled to begin at 9:40 PM ET.
- Who: Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres
- Date: Monday, August 10, 2026
- Time: 9:40 PM ET/6:40PM PT
- Venue: Petco Park
Conclusion
We predict the Brewers, with a 50.3% win probability, will likely beat the Padres in Monday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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