MLB picks today: Friday's MLB best bets include Diamondbacks vs. Braves play [8/14/2026]

Diamondbacks vs. Braves Over 7.5 runs (-113)

• Edge: 8.7%
• Probability: 61.8%
• Matchup: Diamondbacks vs. Braves (7:15PM ET)

Our model has identified value on Over 7.5 runs in Diamondbacks vs. Braves at -113 odds. A 61.8% probability produces an edge of 8.7%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.

Padres vs. Guardians Over 7.5 runs (+111)

• Edge: 6.7%
• Probability: 54.1%
• Matchup: Padres vs. Guardians (7:10PM ET)

Padres vs. Guardians over 7.5 runs carries a 6.7% edge and a probability of 54.1% at +111 odds, according to our model.

Brewers vs. Dodgers Over 7.5 runs (-104)

• Edge: 6.6%
• Probability: 57.6%
• Matchup: Brewers vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET)

Brewers vs. Dodgers Over 7.5 runs at -104 odds shows a 6.6% edge, supported by a 57.6% probability in simulations.

Red Sox vs. Pirates over 8.5 runs (+113)

• Edge: 5.9%
• Probability: 52.8%
• Matchup: Red Sox vs. Pirates (6:40PM ET)

A 5.9% edge and 52.8% probability make Red Sox vs. Pirates over 8.5 runs a value play in the Red Sox vs. Pirates matchup, per our model.

Dodgers -1.5 (+133)

• Edge: 5.7%
• Probability: 48.7%
• Matchup: Brewers vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET)

Dodgers -1.5 at +133 odds presents a 5.7% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 48.7%.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Over 7.5 runs (-113)

• Edge: 5.6%
• Probability: 58.6%
• Matchup: Yankees vs. Blue Jays (7:15PM ET)

Our model finds value on Over 7.5 runs in Yankees vs. Blue Jays at -113 odds, supported by an edge of 5.6%.

Marlins vs. Reds Over 7.5 runs (-111)

• Edge: 5.5%
• Probability: 58.1%
• Matchup: Marlins vs. Reds (6:10PM ET)

Our model has uncovered value on Marlins vs. Reds Over 7.5 runs at -111 odds. A 58.1% probability produces a 5.5% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.

Orioles vs. Rays Over 7.5 runs (-117)

• Edge: 5.1%
• Probability: 59%
• Matchup: Orioles vs. Rays (7:10PM ET)

A 5.1% edge on a 59% probability makes Over 7.5 runs at -117 odds a solid value play in today's Orioles vs. Rays matchup.

Cardinals vs. CubsOver 7.5 runs (-113)

• Edge: 4.8%
• Probability: 57.9%
• Matchup: Cardinals vs. Cubs (2:20PM ET)

Our model projects value on Over 7.5 runs at -113 odds. A 57.9% probability produces a 4.8% edge, making the Over the favorable side in today's matchup.

Mets ML (-108)

• Edge: 4.7%
• Probability: 56.6%
• Matchup: Nationals vs. Mets (7:10PM ET)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Mets to defeat Nationals at -108 odds shows a 56.6% probability and a 4.7% edge.

MLB best bets summary: Friday, 8/14/2026

As of 1:08PM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:

List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [8/14/2026]

• Cardinals vs. Cubs (2:20PM ET, Friday)
• Marlins vs. Reds (6:10PM ET, Friday)
• Red Sox vs. Pirates (6:40PM ET, Friday)
• White Sox vs. Tigers (6:40PM ET, Friday)
• Padres vs. Guardians (7:10PM ET, Friday)
• Nationals vs. Mets (7:10PM ET, Friday)
• Orioles vs. Rays (7:10PM ET, Friday)
• Yankees vs. Blue Jays (7:15PM ET, Friday)
• D-Backs vs. Braves (7:15PM ET, Friday)
• Mariners vs. Astros (8:10PM ET, Friday)
• Royals vs. Angels (9:38PM ET, Friday)
• Rangers vs. Athletics (9:40PM ET, Friday)
• Brewers vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET, Friday)
• Rockies vs. Giants (10:15PM ET, Friday)

Conclusion

Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for August 14, 2026, featuring plays such as over 7.5 runs in the Diamondbacks vs. Braves matchup and over 7.5 runs in the Padres vs. Guardians matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are sourced from current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.