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Read Article MLB picks today: Friday's MLB best bets include Diamondbacks vs. Astros play [9/4/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get MLB picks today and best bets for Friday, September 4, 2026.
Today’s MLB picks for September 4, 2026 are here, with Diamondbacks vs. Astros and Rays vs. Rangers among the top plays identified by our model across Friday’s MLB action.
Dimers’ predictive analytics engine runs 24/7, searching the latest baseball odds to uncover genuine betting edges. The result? Data-backed picks that help Dimers Pro members make smarter decisions.
List of MLB best bets tonight [9/4, updated 7:51PM ET]
Below, you’ll find today’s top 10 MLB best bets, ranked by edge for Friday, September 4, 2026.
Diamondbacks vs. Astros Over 8.5 runs (-113)
- Edge: 7.3%
- Probability: 60.3%
- Matchup: Diamondbacks vs. Astros (8:10PM ET)
Our model has identified value on Over 8.5 runs in Diamondbacks vs. Astros at -113 odds. A 60.3% probability produces an edge of 7.3%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.
Rays vs. Rangers Over 8.5 runs (+100)
- Edge: 6.7%
- Probability: 56.7%
- Matchup: Rays vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET)
Rays vs. Rangers over 8.5 runs carries a 6.7% edge and a probability of 56.7% at +100 odds, according to our model.
Yankees vs. Padres Over 7.5 runs (+113)
- Edge: 6.6%
- Probability: 53.5%
- Matchup: Yankees vs. Padres (9:40PM ET)
Yankees vs. Padres Over 7.5 runs at +113 odds shows a 6.6% edge, supported by a 53.5% probability in simulations.
Athletics vs. Mariners over 7.5 runs (+117)
- Edge: 5.8%
- Probability: 51.8%
- Matchup: Athletics vs. Mariners (10:10PM ET)
A 5.8% edge and 51.8% probability make Athletics vs. Mariners over 7.5 runs a value play in the Athletics vs. Mariners matchup, per our model.
Cardinals vs. Rockies Over 11.5 runs (+122)
- Edge: 5.4%
- Probability: 50.5%
- Matchup: Cardinals vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET)
Cardinals vs. Rockies Over 11.5 runs at +122 odds presents a 5.4% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 50.5%.
Nationals vs. Dodgers Over 7.5 runs (-115)
- Edge: 4.7%
- Probability: 58.2%
- Matchup: Nationals vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET)
Our model finds value on Over 7.5 runs in Nationals vs. Dodgers at -115 odds, supported by an edge of 4.7%.
Blue Jays vs. Royals Over 9.5 runs (-117)
- Edge: 4.2%
- Probability: 58.1%
- Matchup: Blue Jays vs. Royals (8:10PM ET)
Our model has uncovered value on Blue Jays vs. Royals Over 9.5 runs at -117 odds. A 58.1% probability produces a 4.2% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.
Rays -1.5 (+174)
- Edge: 2.9%
- Probability: 39.4%
- Matchup: Rays vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET)
A 2.9% edge on a 39.4% probability makes Rays -1.5 at +174 odds a solid value play in today's Rays vs. Rangers matchup.
Yankees ML (-104)
- Edge: 2.5%
- Probability: 53.5%
- Matchup: Yankees vs. Padres (9:40PM ET)
Our model projects value on Yankees to win at -104 odds. A 53.5% probability produces a 2.5% edge, making Yankees the favorable ML play in today's matchup.
Dodgers -1.5 (-113)
- Edge: 2.5%
- Probability: 55.5%
- Matchup: Nationals vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET)
Rounding out our top 10 bets, Dodgers -1.5 at -113 odds shows a 55.5% probability and a 2.5% edge.
MLB best bets summary: Friday, 9/4/2026
As of 7:51PM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:
| Matchup | Bet | Odds | Edge | Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks vs. Astros | Over 8.5 runs | -113 @ Polymarket | 7.3% | 60.3% |
| Rays vs. Rangers | Over 8.5 runs | +100 @ FanDuel | 6.7% | 56.7% |
| Yankees vs. Padres | Over 7.5 Runs | +113 @ Polymarket | 6.6% | 53.5% |
| Athletics vs. Mariners | Over 7.5 runs | +117 @ Novig | 5.8% | 51.8% |
| Cardinals vs. Rockies | Over 11.5 Runs | +122 @ Polymarket | 5.4% | 50.5% |
| Nationals vs. Dodgers | Over 7.5 Runs | -115 @ Novig | 4.7% | 58.2% |
| Blue Jays vs. Royals | Over 9.5 Runs | -117 @ Polymarket | 4.2% | 58.1% |
| Rays vs. Rangers | Rays -1.5 | +174 @ Novig | 2.9% | 39.4% |
| Yankees vs. Padres | Yankees ML | -104 @ Polymarket | 2.5% | 53.5% |
| Nationals vs. Dodgers | Dodgers -1.5 | -113 @ Novig | 2.5% | 55.5% |
List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [9/4/2026]
- Rays vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET, Friday)
- D-Backs vs. Astros (8:10PM ET, Friday)
- Blue Jays vs. Royals (8:10PM ET, Friday)
- Cardinals vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET, Friday)
- Yankees vs. Padres (9:40PM ET, Friday)
- Nationals vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET, Friday)
- Athletics vs. Mariners (10:10PM ET, Friday)
- Giants vs. Mets (4:10PM ET, Saturday)
- Braves vs. Phillies (6:05PM ET, Saturday)
- Angels vs. Pirates (6:40PM ET, Saturday)
- Brewers vs. Reds (6:40PM ET, Saturday)
- Red Sox vs. Orioles (7:05PM ET, Saturday)
- Rays vs. Rangers (7:05PM ET, Saturday)
- Blue Jays vs. Royals (7:10PM ET, Saturday)
- Twins vs. White Sox (7:10PM ET, Saturday)
- Yankees vs. Padres (7:15PM ET, Saturday)
- D-Backs vs. Astros (7:15PM ET, Saturday)
Conclusion
Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for September 4, 2026, featuring plays such as over 8.5 runs in the Diamondbacks vs. Astros matchup and over 8.5 runs in the Rays vs. Rangers matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.
Our predictions are grounded in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.
All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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