MLB picks today: Monday's MLB best bets include Marlins vs. Diamondbacks play [9/14/2026]

Marlins vs. Diamondbacks Over 8.5 runs (+113)

• Edge: 6.1%
• Probability: 53%
• Matchup: Marlins vs. Diamondbacks (9:40PM ET)

Our model has identified value on Over 8.5 runs in Marlins vs. Diamondbacks at +113 odds. A 53% probability produces an edge of 6.1%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.

Tigers vs. Blue Jays Over 7.5 runs (-104)

• Edge: 6.0%
• Probability: 57%
• Matchup: Tigers vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET)

Tigers vs. Blue Jays over 7.5 runs carries a 6.0% edge and a probability of 57% at -104 odds, according to our model.

White Sox vs. Guardians Over 7 runs (+105)

• Edge: 5.9%
• Probability: 54.7%
• Matchup: White Sox vs. Guardians (6:40PM ET)

White Sox vs. Guardians Over 7 runs at +105 odds shows a 5.9% edge, supported by a 54.7% probability in simulations.

Yankees vs. Twins over 8.5 runs (+100)

• Edge: 5.3%
• Probability: 55.3%
• Matchup: Yankees vs. Twins (7:40PM ET)

A 5.3% edge and 55.3% probability make Yankees vs. Twins over 8.5 runs a value play in the Yankees vs. Twins matchup, per our model.

Dodgers vs. Reds Over 8.5 runs (+117)

• Edge: 5.1%
• Probability: 51.2%
• Matchup: Dodgers vs. Reds (6:40PM ET)

Dodgers vs. Reds Over 8.5 runs at +117 odds presents a 5.1% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 51.2%.

Padres vs. Rockies Over 11 runs (-102)

• Edge: 4.4%
• Probability: 54.9%
• Matchup: Padres vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET)

Our model finds value on Over 11 runs in Padres vs. Rockies at -102 odds, supported by an edge of 4.4%.

Diamondbacks -1.5 (+170)

• Edge: 4.2%
• Probability: 41.3%
• Matchup: Marlins vs. Diamondbacks (9:40PM ET)

Our model has uncovered value on Diamondbacks -1.5 at +170 odds. A 41.3% probability produces a 4.2% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.

Diamondbacks ML (-120)

• Edge: 3.6%
• Probability: 58.2%
• Matchup: Marlins vs. Diamondbacks (9:40PM ET)

A 3.6% edge on a 58.2% probability makes Diamondbacks to win at -120 odds a solid value play in today's Marlins vs. Diamondbacks matchup.

Orioles vs. MetsOver 7.5 runs (-114)

• Edge: 3.4%
• Probability: 56.7%
• Matchup: Orioles vs. Mets (7:10PM ET)

Our model projects value on Over 7.5 runs at -114 odds. A 56.7% probability produces a 3.4% edge, making the Over the favorable side in today's matchup.

Mets ML (-113)

• Edge: 3.2%
• Probability: 56.3%
• Matchup: Orioles vs. Mets (7:10PM ET)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Mets to defeat Orioles at -113 odds shows a 56.3% probability and a 3.2% edge.

MLB best bets summary: Monday, 9/14/2026

As of 6:02AM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:

List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [9/14/2026]

• White Sox vs. Guardians (6:40PM ET, Monday)
• Dodgers vs. Reds (6:40PM ET, Monday)
• Tigers vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET, Monday)
• Orioles vs. Mets (7:10PM ET, Monday)
• Yankees vs. Twins (7:40PM ET, Monday)
• Braves vs. Cubs (7:40PM ET, Monday)
• Giants vs. Cardinals (7:45PM ET, Monday)
• Padres vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET, Monday)
• Mariners vs. Angels (9:38PM ET, Monday)
• Marlins vs. D-Backs (9:40PM ET, Monday)

Conclusion

Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for September 14, 2026, featuring plays such as over 8.5 runs in the Marlins vs. Diamondbacks matchup and over 7.5 runs in the Tigers vs. Blue Jays matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are grounded in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.