MLB picks today: Thursday's MLB best bets include Athletics vs. Rays play [9/17/2026]

Athletics ML (+253)

• Edge: 5.8%
• Probability: 34.1%
• Matchup: Athletics vs. Rays (1:10PM ET)

Our model has identified value on Athletics to defeat Rays at 28¢ odds. A 34.1% probability produces an edge of 5.8%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.

Athletics +1.5 (+108)

• Edge: 5.2%
• Probability: 53.3%
• Matchup: Athletics vs. Rays (1:10PM ET)

Athletics +1.5 carries a 5.2% edge and a probability of 53.3% at 48¢ odds, according to our model.

Twins vs. Angels Over 7.5 runs (-104)

• Edge: 5.0%
• Probability: 55.9%
• Matchup: Twins vs. Angels (9:38PM ET)

Twins vs. Angels Over 7.5 runs at 51¢ odds shows a 5.0% edge, supported by a 55.9% probability in simulations.

Red Sox vs. Rangers over 8.5 runs (+108)

• Edge: 4.4%
• Probability: 52.5%
• Matchup: Red Sox vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET)

A 4.4% edge and 52.5% probability make Red Sox vs. Rangers over 8.5 runs a value play in the Red Sox vs. Rangers matchup, per our model.

Athletics vs. Rays Over 7.5 runs (-108)

• Edge: 4.1%
• Probability: 56%
• Matchup: Athletics vs. Rays (1:10PM ET)

Athletics vs. Rays Over 7.5 runs at 52¢ presents a 4.1% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 56%.

Padres vs. Rockies Over 10.5 runs (-113)

• Edge: 3.6%
• Probability: 56.7%
• Matchup: Padres vs. Rockies (3:10PM ET)

Our model finds value on Over 10.5 runs in Padres vs. Rockies at 53¢, supported by an edge of 3.6%.

Tigers ML (+113)

• Edge: 3.5%
• Probability: 50.5%
• Matchup: Tigers vs. White Sox (7:40PM ET)

Our model has uncovered value on Tigers-White Sox to finish as a tie after 90 minutes at 47¢. A 50.5% probability produces a 3.5% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.

Royals vs. Astros Over 9 runs (+105)

• Edge: 3.5%
• Probability: 52.2%
• Matchup: Royals vs. Astros (7:15PM ET)

A 3.5% edge on a 52.2% probability makes Over 9 runs at +105a solid value play in today's Royals vs. Astros matchup.

Pirates ML (+131)

• Edge: 3.3%
• Probability: 46.5%
• Matchup: Brewers vs. Pirates (12:35PM ET)

Our model projects value on Pirates to win at 43¢. A 46.5% probability produces a 3.3% edge, making Pirates the favorable ML play in today's matchup.

Pirates +1.5 (-127)

• Edge: 2.2%
• Probability: 58.2%
• Matchup: Brewers vs. Pirates (12:35PM ET)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Pirates +1.5 at 56¢ shows a 58.2% probability and a 2.2% edge.

MLB best bets summary: Thursday, 9/17/2026

As of 4:09AM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:

List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [9/17/2026]

• Brewers vs. Pirates (12:35PM ET, Thursday)
• Dodgers vs. Reds (12:40PM ET, Thursday)
• Athletics vs. Rays (1:10PM ET, Thursday)
• Padres vs. Rockies (3:10PM ET, Thursday)
• Phillies vs. Mets (7:15PM ET, Thursday)
• Royals vs. Astros (7:15PM ET, Thursday)
• Tigers vs. White Sox (7:40PM ET, Thursday)
• Red Sox vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET, Thursday)
• Twins vs. Angels (9:38PM ET, Thursday)

Conclusion

Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for September 17, 2026, featuring plays such as Athletics ML vs. Rays and Athletics +1.5. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are grounded in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.