MLB player props today: Thursday's best props include Nick Martinez [9/16/2026]

Nick Martinez over 0.5 walks allowed (-234)

• Edge: 5.8%
• Probability: 75.8%
• Game: Athletics vs. Rays (6:40PM ET)

Our model has flagged value on Rays' Nick Martinez over 0.5 walks allowed. A probability of 75.8% gives this play an edge of 5.8% at -234 odds.

Samad Taylor over 0.5 bases (-185)

• Edge: 5.4%
• Probability: 70.3%
• Game: Padres vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET)

Samad Taylor’s bases prop shows a 70.3% probability and an 5.4% edge at -185 odds, according to our model.

Samad Taylor to get a hit (-190)

• Edge: 4.8%
• Probability: 70.3%
• Game: Padres vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET)

The data highlights value on Samad Taylor to get a hit, with simulations showing a 70.3% probability and a 4.8% edge at -190.

JR Ritchie under 2.5 walks allowed (-170)

• Edge: 6.9%
• Probability: 69.8%
• Game: Braves vs. Cubs (7:40PM ET)

Our model finds value on JR Ritchie under 2.5 walks allowed, with a 69.8% probability and an edge of 6.9% at -170 odds.

Carlos Rodón under 2.5 walks allowed (-174)

• Edge: 6.3%
• Probability: 69.8%
• Game: Yankees vs. Twins (1:40PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Carlos Rodón under 2.5 walks allowed for Yankees, showing an edge of 6.3% at -174 odds.

Shota Imanaga under 1.5 walks allowed (-156)

• Edge: 5.4%
• Probability: 66.3%
• Game: Braves vs. Cubs (7:40PM ET)

Shota Imanaga’s walks allowed prop shows an edge of 5.4% at -156 odds, supported by a 66.3% probability according to our model.

Chris Bassitt over 3.5 strikeouts (-150)

• Edge: 6.1%
• Probability: 66.1%
• Game: Orioles vs. Mets (7:10PM ET)

Our model highlights value on Chris Bassitt over 3.5 strikeouts for Orioles, with a 66.1% probability and a 6.1% edge at -150 odds.

Jackson Merrill over 1.5 bases (-130)

• Edge: 9.2%
• Probability: 65.7%
• Game: Padres vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET)

The data shows value on Jackson Merrill over 1.5 bases, supported by a 65.7% probability at -130 odds and an edge of 9.2%.

Yusei Kikuchi over 1.5 walks allowed (-163)

• Edge: 3.7%
• Probability: 65.7%
• Game: Mariners vs. Angels (9:38PM ET)

A 3.7% edge on the over 1.5 walks allowed line makes Yusei Kikuchi a value play in Mariners vs. Angels, supported by a 65.7% probability at -163 odds.

Anthony Kay over 1.5 earned runs (-155)

• Edge: 4.8%
• Probability: 65.6%
• Game: White Sox vs. Guardians (1:10PM ET)

Simulations show value on Anthony Kay over 1.5 earned runs here, with a 65.6% probability and 4.8% edge at -155 odds.

MLB player prop summary: Wednesday, September 16, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 12:06AM ET:

Conclusion

For September 16, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Nick Martinez, Samad Taylor and JR Ritchie. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.