Jul 23, 2026
MLB player props today: Thursday's best props include Mauricio Dubón [7/23/2026]
Read Article MLB picks today: Monday's MLB best bets include Angels vs. Guardians play [5/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get MLB picks today and best bets for Monday, May 11, 2026.
Today’s MLB picks for May 11, 2026 are here, with Angels vs. Guardians and Rockies vs. Pirates among the top plays identified by our model across Monday’s MLB slate.
Dimers’ predictive analytics engine runs 24/7, searching the latest baseball odds to uncover top betting edges. The result? Data-backed picks that help Dimers Pro members make smarter decisions.
List of MLB best bets tonight [5/11, updated 8:10PM ET]
Below, you’ll find today’s top 10 baseball bets, ranked by edge for Monday, May 11, 2026.
Angels vs. Guardians over 8.5 runs (+102)
- Edge: 5.3%
- Probability: 54.8%
- Matchup: Angels vs. Guardians (6:10PM ET, Tuesday)
Our model has identified value on over 8.5 runs in Angels vs. Guardians at +102 odds. A 54.8% probability produces an edge of 5.3%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.
Rockies vs. Pirates over 8.5 runs (+125)
- Edge: 4.8%
- Probability: 49.3%
- Matchup: Rockies vs. Pirates (6:40PM ET, Tuesday)
Rockies vs. Pirates over 8.5 runs carries a 4.8% edge and a probability of 49.3% at +125 odds, according to our model.
Diamondbacks vs. Rangers over 8.5 runs (+103)
- Edge: 4.8%
- Probability: 54.1%
- Matchup: Diamondbacks vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET, Tuesday)
Diamondbacks vs. Rangers over 8.5 runs at +103 odds shows a 4.8% edge, supported by a 54.1% probability in simulations.
Rays vs. Blue Jays over 8.5 runs (+120)
- Edge: 3.8%
- Probability: 49.3%
- Matchup: Rays vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET, Tuesday)
A 3.8% edge and 49.3% probability make Rays vs. Blue Jays over 8.5 runs at a value play in the Rays vs. Blue Jays matchup, per our model.
Royals vs. White Sox over 9.5 runs (+125)
- Edge: 3.6%
- Probability: 48.1%
- Matchup: Royals vs. White Sox (7:40PM ET, Tuesday)
Royals vs. White Sox over 9.5 runs at +125 odds presents a 3.6% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 48.1%.
Giants vs. Dodgers over 8.5 runs (-135)
- Edge: 3.2%
- Probability: 60.7%
- Matchup: Giants vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET, Monday)
Our model finds value on over 8.5 runs in Giants vs. Dodgers at -135 odds, supported by an edge of 3.2%.
Marlins vs. Twins over 9.5 runs (+135)
- Edge: 3.2%
- Probability: 45.7%
- Matchup: Marlins vs. Twins (7:40PM ET, Tuesday)
Our model has uncovered value on Marlins vs. Twins over 9.5 runs at +135 odds. A 45.7% probability produces a 3.2% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.
Cubs vs. Braves over 9.5 runs (+120)
- Edge: 3.1%
- Probability: 48.6%
- Matchup: Cubs vs. Braves (7:15PM ET, Tuesday)
A 3.1% edge on a 48.6% probability makes over 9.5 runs at +120 odds a solid value play in today's Cubs vs. Braves matchup.
Padres vs. Brewers over 8.5 runs (-106)
- Edge: 2.9%
- Probability: 54.4%
- Matchup: Padres vs. Brewers (7:40PM ET, Tuesday)
Our model projects value on over 8.5 runs at -106 odds. A 54.4% probability produces a 2.9% edge, making the over the favorable side in Saturday’s matchup.
Blue Jays ML (+111)
- Edge: 2.7%
- Probability: 50.2%
- Matchup: Rays vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET, Tuesday)
Rounding out our top 10 bets, Blue Jays to defeat Rays at +111 odds shows a 50.2% probability and a 2.7% edge.
MLB best bets summary: Monday, 5/11/2026
As of 8:10PM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:
| Matchup | Bet | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels vs. Guardians | Over 8.5 Runs | +102 @ polymarket | 5.3% | 54.8% |
| Rockies vs. Pirates | Over 8.5 Runs | +125 @ polymarket | 4.8% | 49.3% |
| Diamondbacks vs. Rangers | Over 8.5 Runs | +103 @ novig | 4.8% | 54.1% |
| Rays vs. Blue Jays | Over 8.5 Runs | +120 @ polymarket | 3.8% | 49.3% |
| Royals vs. White Sox | Over 9.5 Runs | +125 @ polymarket | 3.6% | 48.1% |
| Giants vs. Dodgers | Over 8.5 Runs | -135 @ polymarket | 3.2% | 60.7% |
| Marlins vs. Twins | Over 9.5 Runs | +135 @ polymarket | 3.2% | 45.7% |
| Cubs vs. Braves | Over 9.5 Runs | +120 @ polymarket | 3.1% | 48.6% |
| Padres vs. Brewers | Over 8.5 Runs | -106 @ polymarket | 2.9% | 54.4% |
| Rays vs. Blue Jays | Blue Jays ML | +111 @ polymarket | 2.7% | 50.2% |
List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [5/11/2026]
- Mariners vs. Astros (8:10PM ET, Monday)
- Giants vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET, Monday)
- Angels vs. Guardians (6:10PM ET, Tuesday)
- Nationals vs. Reds (6:40PM ET, Tuesday)
- Rockies vs. Pirates (6:40PM ET, Tuesday)
- Rays vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET, Tuesday)
- Tigers vs. Mets (7:10PM ET, Tuesday)
- Cubs vs. Braves (7:15PM ET, Tuesday)
- Royals vs. White Sox (7:40PM ET, Tuesday)
- Padres vs. Brewers (7:40PM ET, Tuesday)
- Marlins vs. Twins (7:40PM ET, Tuesday)
- D-Backs vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET, Tuesday)
Conclusion
Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for May 11, 2026, featuring plays such as over 8.5 runs in the Angels vs. Guardians matchup and over 8.5 runs in the Rockies vs. Pirates matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.
Our predictions are based on current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.
All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
Advertiser disclosure
