MLB picks today: Thursday's MLB best bets include Twins vs. Guardians play [7/23/2026]
Get MLB picks today and best bets for Thursday, July 23, 2026.
Today’s MLB picks for July 23, 2026 are here, with Twins vs. Guardians and Royals vs. Tigers among the top plays identified by our model across Thursday’s MLB slate.
Dimers’ predictive analytics engine runs 24/7, scanning the latest baseball odds to find top betting edges. The result? Data-backed plays that help Dimers Pro members make smarter decisions.
List of MLB best bets today [7/23, updated 1:36AM ET]
Below, you’ll find today’s best baseball bets, ranked by edge for Thursday, July 23, 2026.
Twins vs. Guardians Over 7.5 runs (-108)
- Edge: 6.2%
- Probability: 58.1%
- Matchup: Twins vs. Guardians (1:10PM ET)
Our model has identified value on Over 7.5 runs in Twins vs. Guardians at -108 odds. A 58.1% probability produces an edge of 6.2%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.
Royals vs. Tigers Over 8.5 runs (+108)
- Edge: 5.9%
- Probability: 54%
- Matchup: Royals vs. Tigers (6:40PM ET)
Royals vs. Tigers over 8.5 runs carries a 5.9% edge and a probability of 54% at +108 odds, according to our model.
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Over 8.5 runs (+117)
- Edge: 4.9%
- Probability: 51%
- Matchup: Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals (5:15PM ET)
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Over 8.5 runs at +117 odds shows a 4.9% edge, supported by a 51% probability in simulations.
Padres vs. Braves over 8.5 runs (+115)
- Edge: 4.2%
- Probability: 50.7%
- Matchup: Padres vs. Braves (12:15PM ET)
A 4.2% edge and 50.7% probability make Padres vs. Braves over 8.5 runs a value play in the Padres vs. Braves matchup, per our model.
Royals +1.5 (-108)
- Edge: 3.7%
- Probability: 55.7%
- Matchup: Royals vs. Tigers (6:40PM ET)
Royals +1.5 at -108 odds presents a 3.7% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 55.7%.
Royals ML (+186)
- Edge: 3.1%
- Probability: 38.1%
- Matchup: Royals vs. Tigers (6:40PM ET)
Our model finds value on Royals to win at +186 odds, supported by an edge of 3.1%.
Blue Jays ML (-104)
- Edge: 3.0%
- Probability: 54%
- Matchup: Rays vs. Blue Jays (3:07PM ET)
Our model has uncovered value on Rays-Blue Jays to finish as a tie after 90 minutes at -104 odds. A 54% probability produces a 3.0% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.
Rays vs. Blue Jays Over 8.5 runs (+100)
- Edge: 2.6%
- Probability: 52.6%
- Matchup: Rays vs. Blue Jays (3:07PM ET)
A 2.6% edge on a 52.6% probability makes Over 8.5 runs at +100 odds a solid value play in today's Rays vs. Blue Jays matchup.
MLB best bets summary: Thursday, 7/23/2026
As of 1:36AM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:
| Matchup | Bet | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twins vs. Guardians | Over 7.5 runs | -108 @ Polymarket | 6.2% | 58.1% |
| Royals vs. Tigers | Over 8.5 runs | +108 @ Polymarket | 5.9% | 54% |
| Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals | Over 8.5 Runs | +117 @ Polymarket | 4.9% | 51% |
| Padres vs. Braves | Over 8.5 runs | +115 @ Novig | 4.2% | 50.7% |
| Royals vs. Tigers | Royals +1.5 | -108 @ Polymarket | 3.7% | 55.7% |
| Royals vs. Tigers | Royals ML | +186 @ Polymarket | 3.1% | 38.1% |
| Rays vs. Blue Jays | Blue Jays ML | -104 @ Novig | 3.0% | 54% |
| Rays vs. Blue Jays | Over 8.5 Runs | +100 @ Polymarket | 2.6% | 52.6% |
List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [7/23/2026]
- Padres vs. Braves (12:15PM ET, Thursday)
- Twins vs. Guardians (1:10PM ET, Thursday)
- Rays vs. Blue Jays (3:07PM ET, Thursday)
- D-Backs vs. Cardinals (5:15PM ET, Thursday)
- Royals vs. Tigers (6:40PM ET, Thursday)
Conclusion
Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for July 23, 2026, featuring plays such as over 7.5 runs in the Twins vs. Guardians matchup and over 8.5 runs in the Royals vs. Tigers matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.
Our predictions are sourced from current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.
All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.
Continue reading with Dimers Pro
Join now to unlock this article and get full access to our predictions and betting tools. Cancel anytime.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
