Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Dinger Tuesday has +680 odds [8/11/2026]

Our MLB home run predictions for Tuesday, August 11, 2026, feature Shohei Ohtani as the top projected hitter, per Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.

Tuesday's HR projections come from our home run predictions, built to highlight the top slugging candidates today.

Home run predictions for August 11, 2026

See which hitters join Ohtani on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +680.

• Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers): 24.9% probability
• Kyle Schwarber (Phillies): 20.2%
• Cal Raleigh (Mariners): 19.6%
• Junior Caminero (Rays): 19.3%
• Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks): 18.9%
• Kyle Tucker (Dodgers): 18.8%
• Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks): 18.8%
• Max Muncy (Dodgers): 18.1%
• Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers): 18.0%
• Jake Burger (Rangers): 17.9%

Our analysis shows Ohtani leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 24.9% chance to go deep, followed by Kyle Schwarber (20.2%) and Cal Raleigh (19.6%).

Junior Caminero and Ketel Marte are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Tuesday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Tuesday's home run picks [8/11/2026]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and evaluating key factors like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays) to hit a home run

• Probability: 15.4%
• Odds: +680
• Edge: 2.6%
• Pitching matchup: Patrick Sandoval
• More game projections: Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction (7:07 PM EDT)

Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Toronto slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. rates as a value play at +680 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 2.6% edge.

With Patrick Sandoval on the mound for the Red Sox, the data supports Jr. as one of Tuesday’s strongest value spots among available home run props — and a natural fit for Dinger Tuesday, a night built around finding value in long-ball matchups.

Originally sparked by sportsbook offers rewarding bonus bets for each home run hit by a selected player, Dinger Tuesday has evolved into a weekly tradition for MLB bettors — where clear, model-driven insights like these can help separate signal from noise.

Pro users have access to all of our home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For August 11, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber and Cal Raleigh projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 2.6% edge at +680 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Tuesday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

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