Today’s top 10 most likely home run hitters, plus +760 pick for Friday [8/14/2026]

• Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers): 23.3% probability
• Jake Burger (Rangers): 20.0%
• Corey Seager (Rangers): 19.5%
• Francisco Alvarez (Mets): 18.8%
• Eugenio Suárez (Reds): 18.7%
• Tyler Soderstrom (Athletics): 18.4%
• Junior Caminero (Rays): 17.6%
• Yordan Alvarez (Astros): 17.6%
• Kyle Tucker (Dodgers): 17.5%
• Wyatt Langford (Rangers): 17.2%

Our analysis shows Ohtani leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 23.3% chance to go deep, followed by Jake Burger (20.0%) and Corey Seager (19.5%).

Francisco Alvarez and Eugenio Suárez are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Friday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Friday's home run picks [8/14/2026]

Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, reveals today’s highest-rated home run prop.

Jorge Polanco (Mets) to hit a home run

• Probability: 16.9%
• Odds: +760
• Edge: 5.3%
• Pitching matchup: Andrew Alvarez
• More game projections: Nationals vs. Mets prediction (7:10 PM EDT)

Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, New York slugger Jorge Polanco rates as a value play at +760 with FanDuel Sportsbook, showing a 5.3% edge.

With Andrew Alvarez on the mound for the Nationals, the data supports Polanco as one of Friday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to a total of 12 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For August 14, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Jake Burger and Corey Seager projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Jorge Polanco who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 5.3% edge at +760 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Friday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

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