Home run predictions for Thursday include Jake Burger, Junior Caminero [8/20/2026]

• Jake Burger (Rangers): 19.6% probability
• Corey Seager (Rangers): 19.5%
• Yordan Alvarez (Astros): 18.3%
• Cal Raleigh (Mariners): 18.2%
• Junior Caminero (Rays): 17.9%
• JJ Bleday (Reds): 17.0%
• Wyatt Langford (Rangers): 16.8%
• Danny Jansen (Rangers): 16.1%
• Christian Walker (Astros): 15.8%
• Daulton Varsho (Astros): 15.8%

Our analysis shows Burger leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 19.6% chance to go yard, followed by Corey Seager (19.5%) and Yordan Alvarez (18.3%).

Cal Raleigh and Junior Caminero are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Thursday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Thursday's home run picks [8/20/2026]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and evaluating key factors like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.

Danny Jansen (Rangers) to hit a home run

• Probability: 16.1%
• Odds: +750
• Edge: 4.3%
• Pitching matchup: Andrew Alvarez
• More game projections: Nationals vs. Rangers prediction (8:05 PM EDT)

Ranked among today’s top 10 home run projections, Texas slugger Danny Jansen rates as a value play at +750 with FanDuel Sportsbook, showing a 4.3% edge.

With Andrew Alvarez on the mound for the Nationals, the data supports Jansen as one of Thursday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to a total of 13 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For August 20, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Jake Burger, Corey Seager and Yordan Alvarez projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Danny Jansen who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 4.3% edge at +750 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Thursday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

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