Jul 23, 2026
MLB picks today: Thursday's MLB best bets include Twins vs. Guardians play [7/23/2026]
Read Article Today’s top 10 most likely home run hitters, plus +920 pick for Friday [6/5/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get home run predictions today driven by expert analysis of Friday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Friday, June 5, 2026, feature Kyle Schwarber as the top projected hitter, based on Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Friday's HR projections pull from our full list of home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the top home run picks today.
Home run predictions for June 5, 2026
See which hitters join Schwarber on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +920.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 22.2% |
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 22.1% |
| Hunter Goodman (Rockies) | 18.9% |
| Jake Bauers (Brewers) | 18.4% |
| Byron Buxton (Twins) | 18.0% |
| Yordan Alvarez (Astros) | 17.9% |
| Jackson Chourio (Brewers) | 17.9% |
| Vladimir Guerrero (Blue Jays) | 17.7% |
| Michael Busch (Cubs) | 17.4% |
| Daulton Varsho (Blue Jays) | 17.1% |
Our analysis shows Schwarber leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 22.2% chance to go deep, followed by Shohei Ohtani (22.1%) and Hunter Goodman (18.9%).
Jake Bauers and Byron Buxton are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Friday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Friday's home run picks [6/5/2026]
Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, identifies today’s highest-rated home run prop.
David Hamilton (Brewers) to hit a home run
- Probability: 12.7%
- Odds: +920
- Edge: 2.9%
- Game: Brewers vs. Rockies (8:40 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Ryan Feltner
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Milwaukee slugger David Hamilton rates as a value play at +920 with FanDuel Sportsbook, showing a 2.9% edge.
Against Rockies starter Ryan Feltner, the data supports Hamilton as one of Friday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to all of our home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For June 5, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Kyle Schwarber, Shohei Ohtani and Hunter Goodman projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's David Hamilton who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 2.9% edge at +920 odds.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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