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Read Article Home run predictions for Friday include Byron Buxton, Nick Kurtz [6/26/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get home run predictions today backed by expert analysis of Friday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Friday, June 26, 2026, feature Byron Buxton as the top projected hitter, per Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Friday's HR projections pull from our proprietary home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the top home run picks today.
Home run predictions for June 26, 2026
See which hitters join Buxton on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +630.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (Twins) | 23.2% |
| Pete Alonso (Orioles) | 22.2% |
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 20.2% |
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 19.4% |
| Royce Lewis (Twins) | 19.0% |
| Tyler O'Neill (Orioles) | 18.9% |
| Jo Adell (Angels) | 18.5% |
| Shea Langeliers (Athletics) | 18.0% |
| Kody Clemens (Twins) | 18.0% |
| Junior Caminero (Rays) | 17.6% |
Our analysis shows Buxton leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 23.2% chance to go yard, followed by Pete Alonso (22.2%) and Shohei Ohtani (20.2%).
Nick Kurtz and Royce Lewis are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Friday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Friday's home run picks [6/26/2026]
Powered by 10,000 simulations and data-driven factors like weather and pitcher form, Dimers Pro highlights today’s top home run prop.
Taylor Ward (Orioles) to hit a home run
- Probability: 17.2%
- Odds: +630
- Edge: 3.5%
- Game: Nationals vs. Orioles (7:05 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Andrew Alvarez
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Baltimore slugger Taylor Ward rates as a value play at +630 with FanDuel Sportsbook, showing a 3.5% edge.
Against Nationals starter Andrew Alvarez, the data supports Ward as one of Friday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to all of our home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For June 26, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Byron Buxton, Pete Alonso and Shohei Ohtani projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Taylor Ward who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.5% edge at +630 odds.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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