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Read Article Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Friday has +390 odds [7/17/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get home run predictions today backed by expert analysis of Friday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Friday, July 17, 2026, feature Eugenio Suárez as the top projected hitter, based on Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Friday's HR projections come straight from our home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the most likely home run hitters today.
Home run predictions for July 17, 2026
See which hitters join Suárez on today’s list plus find our best value play for Friday’s slate.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Eugenio Suárez (Reds) | 27.4% |
| Shea Langeliers (Athletics) | 22.2% |
| JJ Bleday (Reds) | 20.7% |
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 20.1% |
| Hunter Goodman (Rockies) | 19.8% |
| Jo Adell (Angels) | 19.3% |
| Tyler Soderstrom (Athletics) | 18.9% |
| Matt Olson (Braves) | 18.8% |
| Cal Raleigh (Mariners) | 18.8% |
| Elly De La Cruz (Reds) | 18.4% |
Our analysis shows Suárez leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 27.4% chance to go yard, followed by Shea Langeliers (22.2%) and JJ Bleday (20.7%).
Shohei Ohtani and Hunter Goodman are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Friday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Friday's home run picks [7/17/2026]
Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, identifies today’s highest-rated home run prop.
Eugenio Suárez (Reds) to hit a home run
- Probability: 27.4%
- Odds: +390
- Edge: 7.0%
- Game: Reds vs. Rockies (8:40 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Gabriel Hughes
Ranked top of today’s home run projections, Cincinnati slugger Eugenio Suárez rates as a value play at +390 with FanDuel Sportsbook, showing a 7.0% edge.
Set to face Gabriel Hughes in tonight's Reds-Rockies matchup, the data supports Suárez as one of Friday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of 10 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For July 17, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Eugenio Suárez, Shea Langeliers and JJ Bleday projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. Suárez in particular emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 7.0% edge at +390 odds.
Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Friday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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