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Read Article Today’s top 10 most likely home run hitters, plus +580 pick for Saturday [5/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today guided by expert analysis of Saturday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Saturday, May 9, 2026, feature Kyle Schwarber as the top projected hitter, based on Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Saturday's HR projections come from our home run predictions, which highlight the top home run picks today.
Home run predictions for May 9, 2026
See which hitters join Schwarber on today’s list — including one long-shot pick the model rates as value at +580.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 24.5% |
| Vladimir Guerrero (Blue Jays) | 21.2% |
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 20.5% |
| Cal Raleigh (Mariners) | 20.4% |
| Pete Alonso (Orioles) | 20.0% |
| Daulton Varsho (Blue Jays) | 19.8% |
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 19.1% |
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 18.8% |
| Kazuma Okamoto (Blue Jays) | 18.7% |
| Adolis Garcia (Phillies) | 18.4% |
Our analysis shows Schwarber leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 24.5% chance to go yard, followed by Vladimir Guerrero (21.2%) and Shohei Ohtani (20.5%).
Cal Raleigh and Pete Alonso are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Saturday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Saturday's home run picks [5/9/2026]
Powered by 10,000 simulations and data-driven factors like weather and pitcher form, Dimers Pro spotlights today’s top home run prop.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays) to hit a home run
- Probability: 21.2%
- Odds: +580
- Edge: 6.4%
- Game: Angels vs. Blue Jays (3:07 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Jack Kochanowicz
Ranked among today’s top three home run projections, Toronto slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. rates as a value play at +580 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 6.4% edge.
Set to face Jack Kochanowicz in tonight's Angels-Blue Jays matchup, the data supports Jr. as one of Saturday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of 10 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For May 9, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Kyle Schwarber, Vladimir Guerrero and Shohei Ohtani projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. Jr. in particular emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 6.4% edge at +580 odds.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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