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Read Article Home run predictions for Saturday include Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber [7/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today driven by expert analysis of Saturday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Saturday, July 11, 2026, feature Shohei Ohtani as the top projected hitter, per Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Saturday's HR projections pull from our proprietary home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the most likely home run hitters today.
Home run predictions for July 11, 2026
See which hitters join Ohtani on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +910.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 24.8% |
| Eugenio Suárez (Reds) | 21.7% |
| Pete Alonso (Orioles) | 20.2% |
| Ben Rice (Yankees) | 19.9% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 19.5% |
| Jazz Chisholm (Yankees) | 19.2% |
| Yordan Alvarez (Astros) | 19.0% |
| Kyle Tucker (Dodgers) | 18.6% |
| Junior Caminero (Rays) | 17.9% |
| Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers) | 17.6% |
Our analysis shows Ohtani leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 24.8% chance to go deep, followed by Eugenio Suárez (21.7%) and Pete Alonso (20.2%).
Ben Rice and Kyle Schwarber are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Saturday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Saturday's home run picks [7/11/2026]
After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and weighing key factors like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.
Yainer Diaz (Astros) to hit a home run
- Probability: 13.7%
- Odds: +910
- Edge: 3.8%
- Game: Astros vs. Rangers (7:05 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Kumar Rocker
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Houston slugger Yainer Diaz rates as a value play at +910 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 3.8% edge.
Set to face Kumar Rocker in tonight's Astros-Rangers matchup, the data supports Diaz as one of Saturday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of nine home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For July 11, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Eugenio Suárez and Pete Alonso projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Yainer Diaz who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.8% edge at +910 odds.
Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Saturday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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