Jul 23, 2026
Rays vs. Blue Jays prediction: Why Toronto is favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [7/23/2026]
Read Article Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Thursday has +900 odds [5/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today backed by expert analysis of Thursday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Thursday, May 21, 2026, feature Aaron Judge as the top projected hitter, per Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Thursday's HR projections come straight from our home run predictions, built to highlight the top home run bets today.
Home run predictions for May 21, 2026
See which hitters join Judge on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +900.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 21.3% |
| Jo Adell (Angels) | 19.6% |
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 18.5% |
| Juan Soto (Mets) | 17.2% |
| Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks) | 17.0% |
| Shea Langeliers (Athletics) | 17.0% |
| Mike Trout (Angels) | 16.7% |
| Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks) | 16.7% |
| Brent Rooker (Athletics) | 16.2% |
| Ben Rice (Yankees) | 16.1% |
Our analysis shows Judge leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 21.3% chance to go yard, followed by Jo Adell (19.6%) and Nick Kurtz (18.5%).
Juan Soto and Ketel Marte are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Thursday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Thursday's home run picks [5/21/2026]
After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and evaluating key variables like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.
Spencer Jones (Yankees) to hit a home run
- Probability: 15%
- Odds: bet_rivers_in+900
- Edge: 5.0%
- Game: Blue Jays vs. Yankees (7:05 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Braydon Fisher
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, New York slugger Spencer Jones rates as a value play at +900 with bet_rivers_in, showing a 5.0% edge.
With Braydon Fisher on the mound for the Blue Jays, the data supports Jones as one of Thursday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of eight home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For May 21, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Aaron Judge, Jo Adell and Nick Kurtz projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Spencer Jones who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 5.0% edge at +900 odds.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
Advertiser disclosure
