Jul 23, 2026
MLB player props today: Thursday's best props include Mauricio Dubón [7/23/2026]
Read Article Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Thursday has +592 odds [5/28/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today driven by expert analysis of Thursday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Thursday, May 28, 2026, feature Pete Alonso as the top projected hitter, based on Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Thursday's HR projections come from our home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the top home run picks today.
Home run predictions for May 28, 2026
See which hitters join Alonso on today’s list — including one value pick the model rates as value at +592.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (Orioles) | 19.2% |
| Byron Buxton (Twins) | 17.3% |
| Tyler O'Neill (Orioles) | 16.7% |
| Jake Burger (Rangers) | 16.1% |
| Taylor Ward (Orioles) | 15.4% |
| Gunnar Henderson (Orioles) | 15.2% |
| Munetaka Murakami (White Sox) | 14.8% |
| Joc Pederson (Rangers) | 14.7% |
| Vladimir Guerrero (Blue Jays) | 14.6% |
| Jo Adell (Angels) | 14.6% |
Our analysis shows Alonso leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 19.2% chance to go deep, followed by Byron Buxton (17.3%) and Tyler O'Neill (16.7%).
Jake Burger and Taylor Ward are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Thursday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Thursday's home run picks [5/28/2026]
Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, surfaces today’s highest-rated home run prop.
Tyler O'Neill (Orioles) to hit a home run
- Probability: 16.7%
- Odds: +592
- Edge: 2.3%
- Game: Blue Jays vs. Orioles (6:35 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Patrick Corbin
Ranked among today’s top three home run projections, Baltimore slugger Tyler O'Neill rates as a value play at +592 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 2.3% edge.
Set to face Patrick Corbin in tonight's Blue Jays-Orioles matchup, the data supports O'Neill as one of Thursday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to all of our home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For May 28, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Pete Alonso, Byron Buxton and Tyler O'Neill projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. O'Neill in particular emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 2.3% edge at +592 odds.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
Advertiser disclosure
