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Read Article Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Thursday has +540 odds [7/2/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today guided by expert analysis of Thursday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Thursday, July 2, 2026, feature Shohei Ohtani as the top projected hitter, per Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Thursday's HR projections come straight from our home run predictions, built to highlight the top slugging candidates today.
Home run predictions for July 2, 2026
See which hitters join Ohtani on today’s list — including one value pick the model rates as value at +540.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 30.8% |
| Kyle Tucker (Dodgers) | 23.0% |
| Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers) | 22.6% |
| Max Muncy (Dodgers) | 21.9% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 21.2% |
| Andy Pages (Dodgers) | 20.1% |
| Cal Raleigh (Mariners) | 19.0% |
| Freddie Freeman (Dodgers) | 18.2% |
| Dalton Rushing (Dodgers) | 18.2% |
| Mookie Betts (Dodgers) | 18.0% |
Our analysis shows Ohtani leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 30.8% chance to go yard, followed by Kyle Tucker (23.0%) and Teoscar Hernández (22.6%).
Max Muncy and Kyle Schwarber are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Thursday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Thursday's home run picks [7/2/2026]
After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and assessing key factors like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.
Kyle Tucker (Dodgers) to hit a home run
- Probability: 23%
- Odds: +540
- Edge: 7.4%
- Game: Padres vs. Dodgers (10:10 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Randy Vásquez
Ranked among today’s top three home run projections, Los Angeles slugger Kyle Tucker rates as a value play at +540 with FanDuel Sportsbook, showing a 7.4% edge.
Against Padres starter Randy Vásquez, the data supports Tucker as one of Thursday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of nine home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For July 2, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker and Teoscar Hernández projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. Tucker in particular emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 7.4% edge at +540 odds.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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