Today’s top 10 most likely home run hitters, plus +1000 pick for Thursday [7/23/2026]
Get home run predictions today guided by expert analysis of Thursday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Thursday, July 23, 2026, feature Junior Caminero as the top projected hitter, according to Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Thursday's HR projections come straight from our home run predictions, which highlight the top home run picks today.
Home run predictions for July 23, 2026
See which hitters join Caminero on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +1000.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (Rays) | 17.4% |
| Matt Olson (Braves) | 16.7% |
| Austin Riley (Braves) | 16.4% |
| Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks) | 16.0% |
| Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks) | 15.9% |
| Kerry Carpenter (Tigers) | 15.2% |
| Drake Baldwin (Braves) | 14.5% |
| Vladimir Guerrero (Blue Jays) | 14.3% |
| Riley Greene (Tigers) | 14.2% |
| Spencer Torkelson (Tigers) | 14.1% |
Our analysis shows Caminero leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 17.4% chance to go deep, followed by Matt Olson (16.7%) and Austin Riley (16.4%).
Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Thursday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Thursday's home run picks [7/23/2026]
After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and weighing key variables like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.
James Outman (Tigers) to hit a home run
- Probability: 11.8%
- Odds: fanatics+1000
- Edge: 2.7%
- Game: Royals vs. Tigers (6:40 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Randy Dobnak
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Detroit slugger James Outman rates as a value play at +1000 with fanatics, showing a 2.7% edge.
Against Royals starter Randy Dobnak, the data supports Outman as one of Thursday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to all of our home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For July 23, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Junior Caminero, Matt Olson and Austin Riley projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's James Outman who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 2.7% edge at +1000 odds.
Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Thursday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
