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Read Article Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Dinger Tuesday has +487 odds [7/7/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today driven by expert analysis of Tuesday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Tuesday, July 7, 2026, feature Shohei Ohtani as the top projected hitter, based on Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Tuesday's HR projections come from our home run predictions, built to highlight the top home run bets today.
Home run predictions for July 7, 2026
See which hitters join Ohtani on today’s list — including one value pick the model rates as value at +487.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 27.0% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 22.2% |
| Kyle Tucker (Dodgers) | 20.7% |
| Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers) | 19.7% |
| Yordan Alvarez (Astros) | 19.2% |
| Max Muncy (Dodgers) | 19.2% |
| Cal Raleigh (Mariners) | 18.8% |
| Pete Alonso (Orioles) | 18.0% |
| Junior Caminero (Rays) | 17.6% |
| Andy Pages (Dodgers) | 17.5% |
Our analysis shows Ohtani leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 27.0% chance to go deep, followed by Kyle Schwarber (22.2%) and Kyle Tucker (20.7%).
Teoscar Hernández and Yordan Alvarez are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Tuesday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Tuesday's home run picks [7/7/2026]
Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, reveals today’s highest-rated home run prop.
Kyle Tucker (Dodgers) to hit a home run
- Probability: 20.7%
- Odds: +487
- Edge: 3.7%
- Game: Rockies vs. Dodgers (10:10 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Michael Lorenzen
Ranked among today’s top three home run projections, Los Angeles slugger Kyle Tucker rates as a value play at +487 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 3.7% edge.
Against Rockies starter Michael Lorenzen, the data supports Tucker as one of Tuesday’s strongest value spots among available home run props — and a natural fit for Dinger Tuesday, when bettors look for value in home run props across a packed MLB slate.
Originally sparked by sportsbook offers rewarding bonus bets for each home run hit by a selected player, Dinger Tuesday has evolved into a weekly tradition for MLB bettors — where clear, model-driven insights like these can help separate signal from noise.
Pro users have access to a total of five home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For July 7, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber and Kyle Tucker projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. Tucker in particular emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.7% edge at +487 odds.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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