MLB player props today: Tuesday's best props include Nolan Arenado [8/11/2026]
Get MLB player props today with projections for Tuesday's games.
Dimers' MLB player props are live for August 11, 2026, with today's top prop bets led by the likes of Nolan Arenado, Ryan Johnson and Max Kepler.
Our MLB player props model runs continuously to analyze every matchup—including Rockies vs. D-Backs and Rays vs. Athletics—and surface the best MLB player prop bets across the market.
List of MLB prop bets for Tuesday, 8/11
Sourced from 175+ total MLB props on site today, below are the top 10 MLB player props for August 11, ranked by probability.
Nolan Arenado to get a hit (-210)
- Edge: 2.4%
- Probability: 70.2%
- Game: Rockies vs. D-Backs (9:40PM ET)
Our model has found value on Arizona's Nolan Arenado to get a hit. A probability of 70.2% gives this play an edge of 2.4% at -210 odds.
Ryan Johnson over 4.5 hits allowed (-160)
- Edge: 5.9%
- Probability: 67.5%
- Game: Rangers vs. Angels (9:38PM ET)
Ryan Johnson’s hits allowed prop shows a 67.5% probability and an 5.9% edge at -160 odds, according to our model.
Max Kepler to get a hit (-175)
- Edge: 3.1%
- Probability: 66.7%
- Game: Rockies vs. D-Backs (9:40PM ET)
The data highlights value on Max Kepler to get a hit, with simulations showing a 66.7% probability and a 3.1% edge at -175.
Justin Crawford to get a hit (-165)
- Edge: 4.1%
- Probability: 66.4%
- Game: Phillies vs. Cardinals (7:45PM ET)
Our model finds value on Justin Crawford to get a hit, with a 66.4% probability and an edge of 4.1% at -165 odds.
Ryan Waldschmidt to get a hit (-165)
- Edge: 3.9%
- Probability: 66.1%
- Game: Rockies vs. D-Backs (9:40PM ET)
Simulations indicate value on Ryan Waldschmidt to get a hit for Arizona, showing an edge of 3.9% at -165 odds.
Eury Pérez under 4.5 hits allowed (-151)
- Edge: 5.3%
- Probability: 65.4%
- Game: Pirates vs. Marlins (6:40PM ET)
Eury Pérez’s hits allowed prop shows an edge of 5.3% at -151 odds, supported by a 65.4% probability according to our model.
Michael Wacha under 3.5 earned runs (-146)
- Edge: 5.6%
- Probability: 64.9%
- Game: Royals vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET)
Our model highlights value on Michael Wacha under 3.5 earned runs for Kansas City, with a 64.9% probability and a 5.6% edge at -146 odds.
Martín Pérez over 4.5 hits allowed (-147)
- Edge: 4.8%
- Probability: 64.3%
- Game: Mets vs. Braves (7:15PM ET)
The data shows value on Martín Pérez over 4.5 hits allowed, supported by a 64.3% probability at -147 odds and an edge of 4.8%.
Kyle Harrison under 5.5 strikeouts (-135)
- Edge: 6.5%
- Probability: 63.9%
- Game: Brewers vs. Padres (9:40PM ET)
A 6.5% edge on the under 4.5 strikeouts line makes Kyle Harrison a value play in Brewers vs. Padres, supported by a 63.9% probability at -135 odds.
Brandon Young under 4.5 strikeouts (-155)
- Edge: 2.7%
- Probability: 63.5%
- Game: Orioles vs. Twins (7:40PM ET)
Simulations show value on Brandon Young under 4.5 strikeouts here, with a 63.5% probability and 2.7% edge at -155 odds.
MLB player prop summary: Tuesday, August 11, 2026
A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 8:18AM ET:
| Matchup | Prop | Odds | Edge | Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies vs. D-Backs | Nolan Arenado to get a hit | -210 @ BetMGM | 2.4% | 70.2% |
| Rangers vs. Angels | Ryan Johnson o4.5 hits allowed | -160 @ DraftKings | 5.9% | 67.5% |
| Rockies vs. D-Backs | Max Kepler to get a hit | -175 @ BetRivers | 4.1% | 66.4% |
| Phillies vs. Cardinals | Justin Crawford to get a hit | -165 @ DraftKings | 4.1% | 66.4% |
| Rockies vs. D-Backs | Ryan Waldschmidt to get a hit | -165 @ BetMGM | 3.9% | 66.1% |
| Pirates vs. Marlins | Eury Pérez u4.5 hits allowed | -151 @ DraftKings | 5.3% | 65.4% |
| Royals vs. Dodgers | Michael Wacha u3.5 earned runs | -146 @ DraftKings | 5.6% | 64.9% |
| Mets vs. Braves | Martín Pérez o4.5 hits allowed | -147 @ DraftKings | 4.8% | 64.3% |
| Brewers vs. Padres | Kyle Harrison u5.5 strikeouts | -135 @ BetMGM | 6.5% | 63.9% |
| Orioles vs. Twins | Brandon Young u4.5 strikeouts | -155 @ BetRivers | 2.7% | 63.5% |
Conclusion
For August 11, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Nolan Arenado, Ryan Johnson and Max Kepler. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.
Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.
Continue reading with Dimers Pro
Join now to unlock this article and get full access to our predictions and betting tools. Cancel anytime.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
