MLB player props today: Monday's best props include Freddy Fermin [9/14/2026]

Freddy Fermin over 0.5 bases (-220)

• Edge: 3.6%
• Probability: 72.3%
• Game: Padres vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET)

Our model has found value on San Diego's Freddy Fermin over 0.5 bases. A probability of 72.3% gives this play an edge of 3.6% at -220 odds.

Freddy Fermin to get a hit (-220)

• Edge: 3.6%
• Probability: 72.3%
• Game: Padres vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET)

Freddy Fermin’s to get a hit prop shows a 72.3% probability and an 3.6% edge at -220 odds, according to our model.

Corbin Burnes over 3.5 strikeouts (-162)

• Edge: 3.5%
• Probability: 65.3%
• Game: Marlins vs. D-Backs (9:40PM ET)

The data highlights value on Corbin Burnes over 3.5 strikeouts, with simulations showing a 65.3% probability and a 3.5% edge at -162.

Casey Mize under 4.5 strikeouts (-162)

• Edge: 2.7%
• Probability: 64.5%
• Game: Padres vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET)

Our model finds value on Casey Mize under 4.5 strikeouts, with a 64.5% probability and an edge of 2.7% at -162 odds.

Corbin Burnes over 1.5 earned runs (-119)

• Edge: 9.0%
• Probability: 63.4%
• Game: Marlins vs. D-Backs (9:40PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Corbin Burnes over 1.5 earned runs for Arizona, showing an edge of 9.0% at -119 odds.

Ezequiel Tovar to get a hit (-152)

• Edge: 2.5%
• Probability: 62.8%
• Game: Padres vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET)

Ezequiel Tovar’s to get a hit prop shows an edge of 2.5% at -152 odds, supported by a 62.8% probability according to our model.

Troy Melton under 17.5 outs recorded (-110)

• Edge: 8.9%
• Probability: 61.3%
• Game: Tigers vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET)

Our model highlights value on Troy Melton under 17.5 outs recorded for Detroit, with a 61.3% probability and a 8.9% edge at -110 odds.

José Soriano under 5.5 strikeouts (-125)

• Edge: 4.9%
• Probability: 60.5%
• Game: Tigers vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET)

The data shows value on José Soriano under 5.5 strikeouts, supported by a 60.5% probability at -125 odds and an edge of 4.9%.

Troy Melton under 5.5 hits allowed (-115)

• Edge: 6.9%
• Probability: 60.4%
• Game: Tigers vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET)

A 6.9% edge on the under 5.5 hits allowed line makes Troy Melton a value play in Tigers vs. Blue Jays, supported by a 60.4% probability at -115 odds.

Tarik Skubal under 4.5 hits allowed (-110)

• Edge: 8.0%
• Probability: 60.4%
• Game: Dodgers vs. Reds (6:40PM ET)

Simulations show value on Tarik Skubal under 4.5 hits allowed here, with a 60.4% probability and 8.0% edge at -110 odds.

MLB player prop summary: Monday, September 14, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 6:31AM ET:

Conclusion

For September 14, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Freddy Fermin, Corbin Burnes and Casey Mize. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.