MLB player props today: Thursday's best props include Gabriel Rincones Jr. [7/16/2026]

Dimers' MLB props are live for July 16, 2026, with today's top prop bets led by the likes of Gabriel Rincones Jr., Christian Scott and Aaron Nola.

Our MLB player props model runs continuously, analyzing every matchup, including today's Mets vs. Phillies clash, to surface the best MLB player prop bets across the market.

List of MLB prop bets for Thursday, 7/16

Below are the top 10 MLB player props for July 16, ranked by probability.

Gabriel Rincones Jr. to get a hit (-114)

• Edge: 3.4%
• Probability: 56.6%
• Game: Mets vs. Phillies (6:10PM ET)

Our model has found value on Philadelphia's Gabriel Rincones Jr. to get a hit. A probability of 56.6% gives this play an edge of 3.4% at -114 odds.

Christian Scott under 2.5 earned runs (+100)

• Edge: 6.6%
• Probability: 56.6%
• Game: Mets vs. Phillies (6:10PM ET)

Christian Scott’s earned runs prop shows a 56.6% probability and an 6.6% edge at +100 odds, according to our model.

Aaron Nola over 5.5 hits allowed (+118)

• Edge: 9.5%
• Probability: 55.3%
• Game: Mets vs. Phillies (6:10PM ET)

The data highlights value on Aaron Nola over 5.5 hits allowed, with simulations showing a 55.3% probability and a 9.5% edge at +118.

Christian Scott under 1.5 walks allowed (-111)

• Edge: 2.5%
• Probability: 55.1%
• Game: Mets vs. Phillies (6:10PM ET)

Our model finds value on Christian Scott under 1.5 walks allowed, with a 55.1% probability and an edge of 2.5% at -111 odds.

Christian Scott under 14.5 outs recorded (+114)

• Edge: 7.5%
• Probability: 54.2%
• Game: Mets vs. Phillies (6:10PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Christian Scott under 14.5 outs recorded for NY Mets, showing an edge of 7.5% at +114 odds.

Alec Bohm over 1.5 bases (+155)

• Edge: 5.4%
• Probability: 44.6%
• Game: Mets vs. Phillies (6:10PM ET)

Alec Bohm’s bases prop shows an edge of 5.4% at +155 odds, supported by a 44.6% probability according to our model.

J.T. Realmuto over 1.5 bases (+165)

• Edge: 4.5%
• Probability: 42.3%
• Game: Mets vs. Phillies (6:10PM ET)

Our model highlights value on J.T. Realmuto over 1.5 bases for Philadelphia, with a 42.3% probability and a 4.5% edge at +165 odds.

Francisco Alvarez over 1.5 bases (+169)

• Edge: 2.4%
• Probability: 39.6%
• Game: Mets vs. Phillies (6:10PM ET)

The data shows value on Francisco Alvarez over 1.5 bases, supported by a 39.6% probability at +169 odds and an edge of 2.4%.

Justin Crawford over 1.5 bases (+180)

• Edge: 3.7%
• Probability: 39.4%
• Game: Mets vs. Phillies (6:10PM ET)

A 3.7% edge on the over 1.5 bases line makes Justin Crawford a value play in Mets vs. Phillies, supported by a 39.4% probability at +180 odds.

Brett Baty over 1.5 bases (+183)

• Edge: 2.4%
• Probability: 37.7%
• Game: Mets vs. Phillies (6:10PM ET)

Simulations show value on Brett Baty over 1.5 bases here, with a 37.7% probability and 2.4% edge at +183 odds.

MLB player prop summary: Thursday, July 16, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 5:43PM ET:

Conclusion

For July 16, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Gabriel Rincones Jr., Christian Scott and Aaron Nola. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.