MLB player props today: Thursday's best props include Ian Seymour [7/23/2026]
Get MLB player props today with projections for Thursday's games.
Dimers' MLB props are live for July 23, 2026, with today's top prop bets led by the likes of Ian Seymour, Mauricio Dubón and Ryan Waldschmidt.
Our MLB player props model runs continuously, analyzing every matchup, including Padres vs. Braves and Twins vs. Guardians, to surface the best MLB player prop bets across the market.
List of MLB prop picks for Thursday, 7/23
Sourced from 55+ total MLB props on site today, below are the top 10 MLB player props for July 23, ranked by probability.
Ian Seymour over 4.5 hits allowed (-119)
- Edge: 9.6%
- Probability: 63.9%
- Game: Rays vs. Blue Jays (3:07PM ET)
Our model has flagged value on Tampa Bay's Ian Seymour over 4.5 hits allowed. A probability of 63.9% gives this play an edge of 9.6% at -119 odds.
Mauricio Dubón to get a hit (-160)
- Edge: 2.4%
- Probability: 63.9%
- Game: Padres vs. Braves (12:15PM ET)
Mauricio Dubón’s to get a hit prop shows a 63.9% probability and an 2.4% edge at -160 odds, according to our model.
Ryan Waldschmidt over 0.5 bases (-140)
- Edge: 4.2%
- Probability: 62.5%
- Game: D-Backs vs. Cardinals (5:15PM ET)
The data highlights value on Ryan Waldschmidt over 0.5 bases, with simulations showing a 62.5% probability and a 4.2% edge at -140.
Ryan Waldschmidt to get a hit (-140)
- Edge: 4.2%
- Probability: 62.5%
- Game: D-Backs vs. Cardinals (5:15PM ET)
Our model finds value on Ryan Waldschmidt to get a hit, with a 62.5% probability and an edge of 4.2% at -140 odds.
Jorge Barrosa to get a hit (-131)
- Edge: 5.5%
- Probability: 62.3%
- Game: D-Backs vs. Cardinals (5:15PM ET)
Simulations indicate value on Jorge Barrosa to get a hit for Arizona, showing an edge of 5.5% at -131 odds.
Michael McGreevy under 17.5 outs recorded (-128)
- Edge: 3.8%
- Probability: 60.0%
- Game: D-Backs vs. Cardinals (5:15PM ET)
Michael McGreevy’s outs recorded prop shows an edge of 3.8% at -128 odds, supported by a 60.0% probability according to our model.
Shane Bieber under 5.5 hits allowed (-113)
- Edge: 4.8%
- Probability: 57.8%
- Game: Rays vs. Blue Jays (3:07PM ET)
Our model highlights value on Shane Bieber under 5.5 hits allowed for Toronto, with a 57.8% probability and a 4.8% edge at -113 odds.
Shane Bieber under 2.5 earned runs (-118)
- Edge: 3.0%
- Probability: 57.1%
- Game: Rays vs. Blue Jays (3:07PM ET)
The data shows value on Shane Bieber under 2.5 earned runs, supported by a 57.1% probability at -118 odds and an edge of 3.0%.
Jimmy Crooks over 0.5 bases (-115)
- Edge: 3.1%
- Probability: 56.6%
- Game: D-Backs vs. Cardinals (5:15PM ET)
A 3.1% edge on the over 2.5 bases line makes Jimmy Crooks a value play in D-Backs vs. Cardinals, supported by a 56.6% probability at -115 odds.
Jimmy Crooks to get a hit (-114)
- Edge: 3.3%
- Probability: 56.6%
- Game: D-Backs vs. Cardinals (5:15PM ET)
Simulations show value on Jimmy Crooks to get a hit here, with a 56.6% probability and 3.3% edge at -114 odds.
MLB player prop summary: Thursday, July 23, 2026
A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 2:31AM ET:
| Matchup | Prop | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays vs. Blue Jays | Ian Seymour over 4.5 hits allowed | -119 @ DraftKings | 9.6% | 63.9% |
| Padres vs. Braves | Mauricio Dubón to get a hit | -160 @ FanDuel | 2.4% | 63.9% |
| D-Backs vs. Cardinals | Ryan Waldschmidt over 0.5 bases | -140 @ Fanatics | 4.2% | 62.5% |
| D-Backs vs. Cardinals | Ryan Waldschmidt to get a hit | -140 @ Fanatics | 4.2% | 62.5% |
| D-Backs vs. Cardinals | Jorge Barrosa to get a hit | -131 @ DraftKings | 5.5% | 62.3% |
| D-Backs vs. Cardinals | Michael McGreevy under 17.5 outs recorded | -128 @ DraftKings | 3.8% | 60.0% |
| Rays vs. Blue Jays | Shane Bieber under 5.5 hits allowed | -113 @ DraftKings | 4.8% | 57.8% |
| Rays vs. Blue Jays | Shane Bieber under 2.5 earned runs | -118 @ DraftKings | 3.0% | 57.1% |
| D-Backs vs. Cardinals | Jimmy Crooks over 0.5 bases | -115 @ Fanatics | 3.1% | 56.6% |
| D-Backs vs. Cardinals | Jimmy Crooks to get a hit | -114 @ DraftKings | 3.3% | 56.6% |
Conclusion
For July 23, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Ian Seymour, Mauricio Dubón and Ryan Waldschmidt. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.
Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
