MLB player props today: Thursday's best props include Nolan Arenado [7/23/2026]

Dimers' MLB props are live for July 23, 2026, with today's top prop bets led by the likes of Ildemaro Vargas, Nolan Arenado and Adrian Del Castillo.

Our MLB player props model runs continuously, analyzing every matchup, including Padres vs. Braves and Twins vs. Guardians, to surface the best MLB player prop bets across the market.

List of MLB prop picks for Thursday, 7/23

Sourced from 60+ total MLB props on site today, below are the top 10 MLB player props for July 23, ranked by probability.

Ildemaro Vargas to get a hit (-165)

• Edge: 4.0%
• Probability: 66.3%
• Game: D-Backs vs. Cardinals (5:15PM ET)

Our model has found value on Arizona's Ildemaro Vargas to get a hit. A probability of 66.3% gives this play an edge of 4.0% at -165 odds.

Nolan Arenado over 0.5 bases (-170)

• Edge: 3.0%
• Probability: 66.0%
• Game: D-Backs vs. Cardinals (5:15PM ET)

Nolan Arenado’s bases prop shows a 66.0% probability and an 3.0% edge at -170 odds, according to our model.

Nolan Arenado to get a hit (-170)

• Edge: 3.0%
• Probability: 66.0%
• Game: D-Backs vs. Cardinals (5:15PM ET)

The data highlights value on Nolan Arenado to get a hit, with simulations showing a 66.0% probability and a 3.0% edge at -170.

Adrian Del Castillo to get a hit (-127)

• Edge: 6.9%
• Probability: 62.9%
• Game: D-Backs vs. Cardinals (5:15PM ET)

Our model finds value on Adrian Del Castillo to get a hit, with a 62.9% probability and an edge of 6.9% at -127 odds.

Ryan Waldschmidt to get a hit (-122)

• Edge: 7.6%
• Probability: 62.5%
• Game: D-Backs vs. Cardinals (5:15PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Ryan Waldschmidt to get a hit for Arizona, showing an edge of 7.6% at -122 odds.

Troy Melton over 1.5 earned runs (-135)

• Edge: 4.2%
• Probability: 61.7%
• Game: Royals vs. Tigers (6:40PM ET)

Troy Melton’s earned runs prop shows an edge of 4.2% at -135 odds, supported by a 61.7% probability according to our model.

Michael McGreevy under 17.5 outs recorded (-112)

• Edge: 7.2%
• Probability: 60.0%
• Game: D-Backs vs. Cardinals (5:15PM ET)

Our model highlights value on Michael McGreevy under 17.5 outs recorded for St. Louis, with a 60.0% probability and a 7.2% edge at -112 odds.

Shane Bieber under 1.5 walks allowed (-111)

• Edge: 7.3%
• Probability: 59.9%
• Game: Rays vs. Blue Jays (3:07PM ET)

The data shows value on Shane Bieber under 1.5 walks allowed, supported by a 59.9% probability at -111 odds and an edge of 7.3%.

Shane Bieber under 5.5 hits allowed (-113)

• Edge: 4.2%
• Probability: 57.3%
• Game: Rays vs. Blue Jays (3:07PM ET)

A 4.2% edge on the under 1.5 hits allowed line makes Shane Bieber a value play in Rays vs. Blue Jays, supported by a 57.3% probability at -113 odds.

Jimmy Crooks over 0.5 bases (-115)

• Edge: 3.4%
• Probability: 56.9%
• Game: D-Backs vs. Cardinals (5:15PM ET)

Simulations show value on Jimmy Crooks over 0.5 bases here, with a 56.9% probability and 3.4% edge at -115 odds.

MLB player prop summary: Thursday, July 23, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 2:58PM ET:

Conclusion

For July 23, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Ildemaro Vargas, Nolan Arenado and Adrian Del Castillo. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.