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Read Article Mets vs. Diamondbacks prediction: Why Arizona is favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [5/10/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks predictions for MLB Sunday.
The Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Mets will lock horns in MLB action at Chase Field on Sunday, starting at 4:10 PM ET.
Eduardo Rodriguez (3-0, 2.50 ERA) will be on the bump for the Diamondbacks, up against Huascar Brazobán (2-0, 1.53 ERA) for the Mets.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Diamondbacks a slight edge with a 51% win probability over the Mets.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's Mets vs. Diamondbacks matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks prediction: Who will win?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's MLB game between the Mets and Diamondbacks, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Diamondbacks a 51% chance of defeating the Mets.
According to our model, the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 61% chance of going over.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks odds [5/10/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mets | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -102 | -115 |
| Total | o8.5 (-118) | u8.5 (+100) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mets | -102 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -118 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB action between the Diamondbacks and Mets at Chase Field is scheduled to begin at 4:10 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
- Date: Sunday, May 10, 2026
- Time: 4:10 PM ET/1:10PM PT
- Venue: Chase Field
Conclusion
We predict the Diamondbacks, with a 51% win probability, will likely beat the Mets in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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