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Read Article Mets vs. Braves prediction: Why Mets are favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [7/5/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves predictions for MLB Sunday.
The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets will lock horns in MLB action at Truist Park on Sunday, starting at 12:30 PM ET.
Martín Pérez (6-5, 3.27 ERA) will start on the mound for the Braves, up against Nolan McLean (5-5, 3.78 ERA) for the Mets.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Mets a slight edge with a 51.5% win probability over the Braves.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's Mets vs. Braves matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Braves prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's MLB game between the Mets and Braves, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Mets a 51.5% chance of defeating the Braves.
According to our model, the 8.5-run over/under has a 56.8% chance of going over,.
Mets vs. Braves odds [7/5/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mets | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -112 | -102 |
| Total | o8.5 (-102) | u8.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mets vs. Braves picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mets | -112 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -102 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mets vs. Braves game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB action between the Braves and Mets at Truist Park is scheduled to commence at 12:30 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
- Date: Sunday, July 5, 2026
- Time: 12:30 PM ET/9:30AM PT
- Venue: Truist Park
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 51.5% win probability, will likely beat the Braves in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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