Sep 8, 2026
Guardians vs. Orioles prediction: Baltimore favored to win Tuesday's MLB matchup [9/8/2026]
Read Article Mets vs. Marlins prediction: Why Miami is favored to win Tuesday's MLB matchup [9/8/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 50.4% win probability for the Marlins at loanDepot park.
The Miami Marlins will take on the New York Mets, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at loanDepot park on Tuesday, beginning at 6:40 PM ET.
The Marlins will start Sandy Alcantara (13-9, 3.54 ERA), up against Sean Manaea (4-7, 4.70 ERA) for the Mets.
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Marlins a slight edge with a 50.4% win probability over the Mets.
This article offers a complete Mets vs. Marlins prediction, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Marlins prediction and odds
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's MLB matchup between the Mets and Marlins, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Marlins a 50.4% chance of beating the Mets.
According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 65.6% chance of covering the run line, while the 7.5-run over/under has a 57.1% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Mets +1.5 (-178) / Marlins -1.5 (+170)
- Moneyline: Mets +122, Marlins -125
- Total: Over/Under 7.5 (-120/+117)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Mets +1.5 @ 64¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Mets @ 45¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 7.5 @ 55¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mets to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Tuesday's MLB matchup between the Marlins and Mets at loanDepot park is scheduled to start at 6:40 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
- Date: Tuesday, September 8, 2026
- Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
- Venue: loanDepot park
Conclusion
We predict the Marlins, with a 50.4% win probability, will likely beat the Mets in Tuesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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