Mets vs. Yankees prediction: Yankees favored to win Friday's Subway Series matchup [9/11/2026]

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Friday's MLB game between the Mets and Yankees, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Yankees a 55.3% chance of beating the Mets. According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 61.7% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 52.5% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Mets +1.5 (-170) / Yankees -1.5 (+163)
• Moneyline: Mets +122, Yankees -122
• Total: Over/Under 8.5 (+115/-117)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Yankees -1.5 @ 38¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Yankees @ 55¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 8.5 @ 47¢ via Novig

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first pitch details

Friday's MLB game between the Yankees and Mets at Yankee Stadium is scheduled to commence at 7:05 PM ET.

• Who: New York Mets vs. New York Yankees
• Date: Friday, September 11, 2026
• Time: 7:05 PM ET/4:05PM PT
• Venue: Yankee Stadium

Conclusion

We predict the Yankees, with a 55.3% win probability, will likely beat the Mets in Friday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.