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Read Article Mets vs. Yankees prediction: Yankees favored to win Friday's Subway Series matchup [9/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Dimers' simulation model projects a 54.0% win probability for the Yankees at Yankee Stadium.
The New York Yankees will square off with the New York Mets, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Yankee Stadium on Friday, starting at 7:05 PM ET.
The Yankees will have Carlos Rodón (5-3, 3.09 ERA) as their starting pitcher, while the Mets are going with Nolan McLean (11-8, 3.06 ERA).
Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Yankees a slight edge with a 54.0% win probability over the Mets.
This article offers a complete Mets vs. Yankees prediction, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Yankees prediction and odds
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Friday's MLB game between the Mets and Yankees, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Yankees a 54.0% chance of defeating the Mets. According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 62.2% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 54.2% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Mets +1.5 (-178) / Yankees -1.5 (+170)
- Moneyline: Mets +117, Yankees -122
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 (+108/-117)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 @ 37¢ via Polymarket
- Moneyline: Mets @ 46¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 8.5 @ 48¢ via Polymarket
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Friday's MLB action between the Yankees and Mets at Yankee Stadium is scheduled to start at 7:05 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. New York Yankees
- Date: Friday, September 11, 2026
- Time: 7:05 PM ET/4:05PM PT
- Venue: Yankee Stadium
Conclusion
We predict the Yankees, with a 54.0% win probability, will likely beat the Mets in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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