Mets vs. Yankees prediction: Yankees favored to win Saturday's Subway Series matchup [9/12/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Saturday's MLB game between the Mets and Yankees, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Yankees a 59.4% chance of beating the Mets. According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 57.1% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 53.4% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Mets +1.5 (-127) / Yankees -1.5 (+122)
• Moneyline: Mets +163, Yankees -170
• Total: Over/Under 8.5 (+113/-115)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Mets +1.5 @ 56¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Mets @ 38¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 8.5 @ 47¢ via Novig

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first pitch details

Saturday's MLB game between the Yankees and Mets at Yankee Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:35 PM ET.

• Who: New York Mets vs. New York Yankees
• Date: Saturday, September 12, 2026
• Time: 1:35 PM ET/10:35AM PT
• Venue: Yankee Stadium

Conclusion

We predict the Yankees, with a 59.4% win probability, will likely beat the Mets in Saturday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.