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Read Article Mets vs. Yankees prediction: Yankees favored to win Saturday's Subway Series matchup [9/12/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Dimers' simulation model projects a 58.5% win probability for the Yankees at Yankee Stadium.
The New York Yankees will take on the New York Mets in MLB action at Yankee Stadium on Saturday, starting at 1:35 PM ET.
The Yankees will start Gerrit Cole (8-8, 3.40 ERA), up against Zac Thornton (3-5, 3.53 ERA) for the Mets.
Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Yankees as the most likely winner in this Mets vs. Yankees prediction.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Yankees prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Saturday's MLB game between the Mets and Yankees, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Yankees a 58.5% chance of beating the Mets. According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 58.2% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 54.0% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Mets +1.5 (-140) / Yankees -1.5 (+138)
- Moneyline: Mets +144, Yankees -147
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 (+113/-117)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Mets +1.5 @ -140 via bet365
- Moneyline: Mets @ 41¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 8.5 @ 47¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Saturday's MLB action between the Yankees and Mets at Yankee Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:35 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. New York Yankees
- Date: Saturday, September 12, 2026
- Time: 1:35 PM ET/10:35AM PT
- Venue: Yankee Stadium
Conclusion
We predict the Yankees, with a 58.5% win probability, will likely beat the Mets in Saturday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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