Jul 22, 2026
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Read Article Mets vs. Phillies prediction: Why Philadelphia is favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [6/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies predictions for MLB Sunday.
MLB action continues on Sunday at 7:20 PM ET as the New York Mets take on the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.
Zack Wheeler (6-1, 2.01 ERA) will be on the bump for the Phillies, pitting him against David Peterson (3-5, 5.91 ERA) for the Mets.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Phillies as the most likely winner of the Mets vs. Phillies game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Phillies prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's MLB game between the Mets and Phillies, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Phillies a 59.1% chance of defeating the Mets.
According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 57.9% chance of covering the run line, while the 8-run over/under has a 53.9% chance of going over,.
Mets vs. Phillies odds [6/21/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mets | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-134) | -1.5 (+114) |
| Moneyline | +158 | -181 |
| Total | o8 (-110) | u8 (-104) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mets vs. Phillies picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets +1.5 | -134 |
| Moneyline | Mets | +158 |
| Total | Over 8 | -110 |
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Mets to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mets vs. Phillies game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB game between the Phillies and Mets at Citizens Bank Park is scheduled to start at 7:20 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
- Date: Sunday, June 21, 2026
- Time: 7:20 PM ET/4:20PM PT
- Venue: Citizens Bank Park
Conclusion
We predict the Phillies, with a 59.1% win probability, will likely beat the Mets in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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