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Read Article Mets vs. Phillies prediction: Why Mets are favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [6/18/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies predictions for MLB Thursday.
MLB action continues on Thursday at 6:40 PM ET as the New York Mets take on the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.
The Phillies will start Aaron Nola (3-4, 5.86 ERA), while the Mets will counter with Sean Manaea (1-2, 4.78 ERA).
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Mets a slight edge with a 50.2% win probability over the Phillies.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's Mets vs. Phillies matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Phillies prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB matchup between the Mets and Phillies, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Mets a 50.2% chance of beating the Phillies.
According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 66.5% chance of covering the run line, while the 10-run over/under has a 50.4% chance of going over,.
Mets vs. Phillies odds [6/18/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mets | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-194) | -1.5 (+160) |
| Moneyline | +106 | -124 |
| Total | o10 (-108) | u10 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mets vs. Phillies picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets +1.5 | -194 |
| Moneyline | Mets | +106 |
| Total | Over 10 | -108 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mets to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mets vs. Phillies game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB matchup between the Phillies and Mets at Citizens Bank Park is scheduled to commence at 6:40 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
- Date: Thursday, June 18, 2026
- Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
- Venue: Citizens Bank Park
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 50.2% win probability, will likely beat the Phillies in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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