Jul 23, 2026
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Read Article Mets vs. Padres prediction: San Diego favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [6/5/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get New York Mets vs San Diego Padres predictions for MLB Friday.
The San Diego Padres and New York Mets will meet in MLB action at Petco Park on Friday, starting at 9:40 PM ET.
Michael King (4-4, 3.18 ERA) will start on the mound for the Padres, pitting him against Christian Scott (1-0, 2.97 ERA) for the Mets.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model predicts the Padres as the most likely winner of the Mets vs. Padres game.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Padres prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Friday's MLB game between the Mets and Padres, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Padres a 51.8% chance of beating the Mets.
According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 66.4% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of seven runs has a 55.4% chance of going over.
Mets vs. Padres odds [6/5/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mets | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-205) | -1.5 (+170) |
| Moneyline | +110 | -130 |
| Total | o7 (-120) | u7 (+100) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mets vs. Padres picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets +1.5 | -205 |
| Moneyline | Mets | +110 |
| Total | Over 7 | -120 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mets vs. Padres game-day updates and essential details
Friday's MLB action between the Padres and Mets at Petco Park is scheduled to commence at 9:40 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres
- Date: Friday, June 5, 2026
- Time: 9:40 PM ET/6:40PM PT
- Venue: Petco Park
Conclusion
We predict the Padres, with a 51.8% win probability, will likely beat the Mets in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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