Jul 23, 2026
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Read Article Mets vs. Blue Jays prediction: Why Toronto is favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [6/29/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays predictions for MLB Monday.
The Toronto Blue Jays will square off with the New York Mets, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Rogers Centre on Monday, commencing at 7:07 PM ET.
The Blue Jays will start Trey Yesavage (3-3, 3.56 ERA), while the Mets have opted for Sean Manaea (1-2, 4.87 ERA).
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Blue Jays a slight edge with a 53.5% win probability over the Mets.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's Mets vs. Blue Jays matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Blue Jays prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Monday's MLB matchup between the Mets and Blue Jays, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Blue Jays a 53.5% chance of beating the Mets.
According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 63.4% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 53.6% chance of going over,.
Mets vs. Blue Jays odds [6/29/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mets | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-190) | -1.5 (+164) |
| Moneyline | +108 | -124 |
| Total | o8.5 (-110) | u8.5 (-101) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mets vs. Blue Jays picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Blue Jays -1.5 | +164 |
| Moneyline | Mets | +108 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -110 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mets vs. Blue Jays game-day updates and essential details
Monday's MLB action between the Blue Jays and Mets at Rogers Centre is scheduled to commence at 7:07 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays
- Date: Monday, June 29, 2026
- Time: 7:07 PM ET/4:07PM PT
- Venue: Rogers Centre
Conclusion
We predict the Blue Jays, with a 53.5% win probability, will likely beat the Mets in Monday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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