Mets vs. Nationals prediction: Why Mets are favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [9/27/2026]

The Washington Nationals will take on the New York Mets, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Nationals Park on Sunday, starting at 1:05 PM ET.

DJ Herz (0-1, 9.00 ERA) will be on the bump for the Nationals, pitting him against Sean Manaea (6-7, 4.67 ERA) for the Mets.

Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Mets a slight edge with a 54.4% win probability over the Nationals.

This article offers a complete Mets vs. Nationals prediction, including best bets and picks.

Mets vs. Nationals prediction and odds

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's MLB game between the Mets and Nationals, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Mets a 54.4% chance of defeating the Nationals. According to our model, the Nationals (+1.5) have a 57.2% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 50.2% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Mets -1.5 (+156) / Nationals +1.5 (-162)
• Moneyline: Mets -108, Nationals +104
• Total: Over/Under 8.5 (+104/-111)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Mets -1.5 @ 39¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Mets @ 52¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 8.5 @ 49¢ via Polymarket

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mets -1.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first pitch details

Sunday's MLB game between the Nationals and Mets at Nationals Park is scheduled to start at 1:05 PM ET.

• Who: New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
• Date: Sunday, September 27, 2026
• Time: 1:05 PM ET/10:05AM PT
• Venue: Nationals Park

Conclusion

We predict the Mets, with a 54.4% win probability, will likely beat the Nationals in Sunday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.