Yankees vs. Phillies prediction: Why Philadelphia is favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [7/24/2026]
Get New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies predictions for MLB Friday.
MLB action continues on Friday at 6:45 PM ET as the New York Yankees lock horns with the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.
Jesús Luzardo (9-4, 3.43 ERA) will start for the Phillies, up against Will Warren (7-4, 4.00 ERA) for the Yankees.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Phillies as the most likely winner of the Yankees vs. Phillies game.
This article offers further insights into Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Yankees vs. Phillies prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Phillies a 56.2% chance of defeating the Yankees.
According to our model, the Yankees (+1.5) have a 61.6% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 56.0% chance of going over,.
Yankees vs. Phillies odds [7/24/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Yankees | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-178) | -1.5 (+170) |
| Moneyline | +127 | -125 |
| Total | o7.5 (-113) | u7.5 (+108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Yankees vs. Phillies picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Phillies -1.5 | +170 |
| Moneyline | Phillies | -125 |
| Total | Over 7.5 | -113 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Yankees vs. Phillies game-day updates and essential details
Friday's MLB game between the Phillies and Yankees at Citizens Bank Park is scheduled to start at 6:45 PM ET.
- Who: New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies
- Date: Friday, July 24, 2026
- Time: 6:45 PM ET/3:45PM PT
- Venue: Citizens Bank Park
Conclusion
We predict the Phillies, with a 56.2% win probability, will likely beat the Yankees in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
