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Read Article Yankees vs. Rays prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [7/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays predictions for MLB Thursday.
The Tampa Bay Rays will square off with the New York Yankees, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Tropicana Field on Thursday, commencing at 1:10 PM ET.
The Rays will have Drew Rasmussen (7-4, 2.78 ERA) as their starting pitcher, pitting him against Paul Blackburn (2-1, 2.22 ERA) for the Yankees.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Rays a slight edge with a 55.0% win probability over the Yankees.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's Yankees vs. Rays matchup, including best bets and picks.
Yankees vs. Rays prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB matchup between the Yankees and Rays, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Rays a 55.0% chance of defeating the Yankees.
According to our model, the Yankees (+1.5) have a 61.7% chance of covering the run line, while the 7.5-run over/under has a 55.8% chance of going over,.
Yankees vs. Rays odds [7/9/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Yankees | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-160) | -1.5 (+156) |
| Moneyline | +133 | -135 |
| Total | o7.5 (+102) | u7.5 (-104) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Yankees vs. Rays picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Yankees +1.5 | novig-160 |
| Moneyline | Yankees | novig+133 |
| Total | Over 7.5 | novig+102 |
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Yankees vs. Rays game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB action between the Rays and Yankees at Tropicana Field is scheduled to begin at 1:10 PM ET.
- Who: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- Date: Thursday, July 9, 2026
- Time: 1:10 PM ET/10:10AM PT
- Venue: Tropicana Field
Conclusion
We predict the Rays, with a 55.0% win probability, will likely beat the Yankees in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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