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Read Article Phillies vs. Mets prediction: Philadelphia favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [6/28/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets predictions for MLB Sunday.
The New York Mets will face the Philadelphia Phillies, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Citi Field on Sunday, beginning at 1:40 PM ET.
The Mets will have Cionel Pérez (3-3, 4.99 ERA) as their starting pitcher, pitting him against Jesús Luzardo (6-4, 4.00 ERA) for the Phillies.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Phillies a slight edge with a 52.1% win probability over the Mets.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's Phillies vs. Mets matchup, including best bets and picks.
Phillies vs. Mets prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's MLB game between the Phillies and Mets, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Phillies a 52.1% chance of defeating the Mets.
According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 60.0% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 50.6% chance of staying under,.
Phillies vs. Mets odds [6/28/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Phillies | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+112) | +1.5 (-125) |
| Moneyline | -156 | +135 |
| Total | o8.5 (-102) | u8.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Phillies vs. Mets picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets +1.5 | -125 |
| Moneyline | Mets | +135 |
| Total | Under 8.5 | -110 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mets to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Phillies vs. Mets game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB game between the Mets and Phillies at Citi Field is scheduled to begin at 1:40 PM ET.
- Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
- Date: Sunday, June 28, 2026
- Time: 1:40 PM ET/10:40AM PT
- Venue: Citi Field
Conclusion
We predict the Phillies, with a 52.1% win probability, will likely beat the Mets in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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