Pirates vs. Cubs prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [9/11/2026]

MLB action continues on Friday at 2:20 PM ET as the Pittsburgh Pirates lock horns with the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.

The Cubs will start Shota Imanaga (9-10, 3.92 ERA), up against Wilber Dotel (1-4, 4.41 ERA) for the Pirates.

Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Cubs as the most likely winner in this Pirates vs. Cubs prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.

Pirates vs. Cubs prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Friday's MLB matchup between the Pirates and Cubs, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Cubs a 63.2% chance of defeating the Pirates. According to our model, the Pirates (+1.5) have a 53.6% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 51.6% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Pirates +1.5 (-113) / Cubs -1.5 (+112)
• Moneyline: Pirates +178, Cubs -178
• Total: Over/Under 8.5 (+104/-106)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Pirates +1.5 @ 53¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Pirates @ 36¢ via Polymarket
• Total: Over 8.5 @ 49¢ via Polymarket

According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first pitch details

Friday's MLB action between the Cubs and Pirates at Wrigley Field is scheduled to commence at 2:20 PM ET.

• Who: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
• Date: Friday, September 11, 2026
• Time: 2:20 PM ET/11:20AM PT
• Venue: Wrigley Field

Conclusion

We predict the Cubs, with a 63.2% win probability, will likely beat the Pirates in Friday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.