Sep 11, 2026
Rockies vs. Tigers prediction: Detroit favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [9/11/2026]
Read Article Pirates vs. Cubs prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [9/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 63.1% win probability for the Cubs at Wrigley Field.
The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates will meet in MLB action at Wrigley Field on Friday, starting at 2:20 PM ET.
The Cubs will send Shota Imanaga (9-10, 3.92 ERA) to the mound, while the Pirates are going with Wilber Dotel (1-4, 4.41 ERA).
Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Cubs as the most likely winner in this Pirates vs. Cubs prediction.
This article offers further insights into Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Pirates vs. Cubs prediction and odds
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Friday's MLB game between the Pirates and Cubs, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Cubs a 63.1% chance of defeating the Pirates. According to our model, the Pirates (+1.5) have a 54.7% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 50.7% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Pirates +1.5 (-130) / Cubs -1.5 (+120)
- Moneyline: Pirates +178, Cubs -185
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 (+106/-113)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Cubs -1.5 @ +120 via bet365
- Moneyline: Pirates @ 36¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 8.5 @ 49¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Friday's MLB action between the Cubs and Pirates at Wrigley Field is scheduled to commence at 2:20 PM ET.
- Who: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
- Date: Friday, September 11, 2026
- Time: 2:20 PM ET/11:20AM PT
- Venue: Wrigley Field
Conclusion
We predict the Cubs, with a 63.1% win probability, will likely beat the Pirates in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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