Sep 12, 2026
Orioles vs. Blue Jays prediction: Why Toronto is favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [9/12/2026]
Read Article Pirates vs. Cubs prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [9/12/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 51.8% win probability for the Cubs at Wrigley Field.
The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates are scheduled to meet in MLB action at Wrigley Field on Saturday, starting at 2:20 PM ET.
Clay Holmes (6-7, 2.83 ERA) will start for the Cubs, up against Paul Skenes (10-11, 3.83 ERA) for the Pirates.
Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Cubs a slight edge with a 51.8% win probability over the Pirates.
This article offers a complete Pirates vs. Cubs prediction, including best bets and picks.
For more, dive into Paul Skenes' projected pitching stats.
Pirates vs. Cubs prediction and odds
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Saturday's MLB game between the Pirates and Cubs, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Cubs a 51.8% chance of beating the Pirates. According to our model, the Pirates (+1.5) have a 63.8% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 52.6% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Pirates +1.5 (-178) / Cubs -1.5 (+163)
- Moneyline: Pirates +113, Cubs -117
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 (-125/+115)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Pirates +1.5 @ 64¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Pirates @ 47¢ via Novig
- Total: Under 8.5 @ +115 via bet365
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Pirates to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Saturday's MLB game between the Cubs and Pirates at Wrigley Field is scheduled to start at 2:20 PM ET.
- Who: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
- Date: Saturday, September 12, 2026
- Time: 2:20 PM ET/11:20AM PT
- Venue: Wrigley Field
Conclusion
We predict the Cubs, with a 51.8% win probability, will likely beat the Pirates in Saturday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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