Pirates vs. Marlins prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [8/13/2026]

The Miami Marlins will square off with the Pittsburgh Pirates, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at loanDepot park on Thursday, beginning at 1:10 PM ET.

The Marlins will send Tyler Phillips (3-5, 3.47 ERA) to the mound, while the Pirates are going with Braxton Ashcraft (11-5, 4.08 ERA).

Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Pirates a slight edge with a 53.7% win probability over the Marlins.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's Pirates vs. Marlins matchup, including best bets and picks.

For more, dive into Braxton Ashcraft's projected pitching stats.

Pirates vs. Marlins prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB matchup between the Pirates and Marlins, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Pirates a 53.7% chance of beating the Marlins.

According to our model, the Marlins (+1.5) have a 59.0% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 60.3% chance of going over,.

Pirates vs. Marlins odds [8/13/2026]

We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Pirates -1.5 (+147) / Marlins +1.5 (-150)
• Moneyline: Pirates -117, Marlins +115

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Pirates vs. Marlins picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Pirates -1.5 @ +147 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Pirates @ -117 via Novig
• Total: Over 7.5 @ -118 via BetRivers

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Pirates vs. Marlins game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's MLB matchup between the Marlins and Pirates at loanDepot park is scheduled to commence at 1:10 PM ET.

• Who: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins
• Date: Thursday, August 13, 2026
• Time: 1:10 PM ET/10:10AM PT
• Venue: loanDepot park

Conclusion

We predict the Pirates, with a 53.7% win probability, will likely beat the Marlins in Thursday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.