Padres vs. Rockies prediction: Why San Diego is favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [9/14/2026]

The Colorado Rockies will face the San Diego Padres in MLB action at Coors Field on Monday, starting at 8:40 PM ET.

Tomoyuki Sugano (12-9, 5.30 ERA) will be on the bump for the Rockies, while the Padres have opted for Casey Mize (5-9, 3.70 ERA).

Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Padres as the most likely winner in this Padres vs. Rockies prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's matchup, including best bets and picks.

Padres vs. Rockies prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Monday's MLB game between the Padres and Rockies, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Padres a 64.7% chance of beating the Rockies. According to our model, the Padres (-1.5) have a 55.6% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 11.5 runs has a 53.1% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Padres -1.5 (-130) / Rockies +1.5 (+135)
• Moneyline: Padres -200, Rockies +203
• Total: Over/Under 11.5 (+117/-117)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Rockies +1.5 @ +135 via Caesars
• Moneyline: Rockies @ 33¢ via Polymarket
• Total: Over 11.5 @ 46¢ via Novig

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 11.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first pitch details

Monday's MLB matchup between the Rockies and Padres at Coors Field is scheduled to begin at 8:40 PM ET.

• Who: San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
• Date: Monday, September 14, 2026
• Time: 8:40 PM ET/5:40PM PT
• Venue: Coors Field

Conclusion

We predict the Padres, with a 64.7% win probability, will likely beat the Rockies in Monday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.