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Read Article Padres vs. Mets prediction: Mets favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [8/17/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get San Diego Padres vs New York Mets predictions for MLB Monday.
The New York Mets will face the San Diego Padres in MLB action at Citi Field on Monday, starting at 7:10 PM ET.
The Mets will send Nolan McLean (8-8, 3.42 ERA) to the mound, pitting him against Walker Buehler (7-5, 4.88 ERA) for the Padres.
Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Mets as the most likely winner in this Padres vs. Mets prediction.
This article offers a closer look at Monday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Padres vs. Mets prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Monday's MLB matchup between the Padres and Mets, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Mets a 55.7% chance of beating the Padres.
According to our model, the Padres (+1.5) have a 61.5% chance of covering the run line, while the 7.5-run over/under has a 52.5% chance of going over,.
Padres vs. Mets odds [8/17/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Padres +1.5 (-186) / Mets -1.5 (+178)
- Moneyline: Padres +113, Mets -115
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Padres vs. Mets picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Mets -1.5 @ +178 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Mets @ -115 via Novig
- Total: Over 7.5 @ -104 via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mets -1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Padres vs. Mets game-day updates and essential details
Monday's MLB game between the Mets and Padres at Citi Field is scheduled to start at 7:10 PM ET.
- Who: San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets
- Date: Monday, August 17, 2026
- Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10PM PT
- Venue: Citi Field
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 55.7% win probability, will likely beat the Padres in Monday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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