Sep 10, 2026
Pirates vs. White Sox prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [9/10/2026]
Read Article Giants vs. Mets prediction: Mets favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [9/4/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Add Dimers on Google 
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 61.1% win probability for the Mets at Citi Field.
The New York Mets will face the San Francisco Giants in MLB action at Citi Field on Friday, commencing at 7:10 PM ET.
The Mets will have Nolan McLean (10-8, 3.06 ERA) as their starting pitcher, up against Matt Wilkinson (0-2, 4.63 ERA) for the Giants.
Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Mets as the most likely winner in this Giants vs. Mets prediction.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Giants vs. Mets prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's MLB matchup between the Giants and Mets, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Mets a 61.1% chance of defeating the Giants.
According to our model, the Giants (+1.5) have a 55.5% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 55.8% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Giants +1.5 (-113) / Mets -1.5 (+111)
- Moneyline: Giants +186, Mets -190
- Total: Over/Under 7.5 (-113/+111)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Giants +1.5 @ 53¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Giants @ 35¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 7.5 @ -113 via BetRivers
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Giants to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Friday's MLB action between the Mets and Giants at Citi Field is scheduled to commence at 7:10 PM ET.
- Who: San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets
- Date: Friday, September 4, 2026
- Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10PM PT
- Venue: Citi Field
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 61.1% win probability, will likely beat the Giants in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
Advertiser disclosure
