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Read Article Mariners vs. Astros prediction: Seattle favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [5/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros predictions for MLB Monday.
The Houston Astros will face the Seattle Mariners in MLB action at Daikin Park on Monday, starting at 8:10 PM ET.
Peter Lambert (2-2, 2.42 ERA) will be on the bump for the Astros, pitting him against George Kirby (4-2, 2.94 ERA) for the Mariners.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model predicts the Mariners as the most likely winner of the Mariners vs. Astros game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mariners vs. Astros prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's MLB game between the Mariners and Astros, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Mariners a 56% chance of beating the Astros.
According to our model, the Astros (+1.5) have a 55% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 56% chance of going over.
Mariners vs. Astros odds [5/11/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mariners | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+118) | +1.5 (-131) |
| Moneyline | -150 | +130 |
| Total | o8.5 (-120) | u8.5 (+100) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mariners vs. Astros picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mariners -1.5 | +118 |
| Moneyline | Astros | +130 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -120 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mariners vs. Astros game-day updates and essential details
Monday's MLB matchup between the Astros and Mariners at Daikin Park is scheduled to start at 8:10 PM ET.
- Who: Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
- Date: Monday, May 11, 2026
- Time: 8:10 PM ET/5:10PM PT
- Venue: Daikin Park
Conclusion
We predict the Mariners, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat the Astros in Monday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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