Jul 22, 2026
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Read Article Mariners vs. Pirates prediction: Why Seattle is favored to win Tuesday's MLB matchup [6/23/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates predictions for MLB Tuesday.
The Pittsburgh Pirates will square off with the Seattle Mariners in MLB action at PNC Park on Tuesday, commencing at 6:40 PM ET.
The Pirates will start Mitch Keller (5-4, 4.92 ERA), while the Mariners are going with George Kirby (5-7, 4.10 ERA).
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model predicts the Mariners as the most likely winner of the Mariners vs. Pirates game.
This article offers a closer look at Tuesday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mariners vs. Pirates prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's MLB matchup between the Mariners and Pirates, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Mariners a 55.8% chance of defeating the Pirates.
According to our model, the Pirates (+1.5) have a 56.9% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 53.6% chance of going over,.
Mariners vs. Pirates odds [6/23/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mariners | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+128) | +1.5 (-154) |
| Moneyline | -130 | +114 |
| Total | o8.5 (-118) | u8.5 (-104) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mariners vs. Pirates picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mariners -1.5 | +128 |
| Moneyline | Mariners | -130 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -118 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mariners vs. Pirates game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's MLB game between the Pirates and Mariners at PNC Park is scheduled to commence at 6:40 PM ET.
- Who: Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Date: Tuesday, June 23, 2026
- Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
- Venue: PNC Park
Conclusion
We predict the Mariners, with a 55.8% win probability, will likely beat the Pirates in Tuesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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